Both sides stopped shooting. One side is getting paid.
The US and Iran agreed to stand down after the weekend’s exchange of strikes, and talks resume in Doha today
Good morning. Both sides stopped shooting. Talks open in Doha today. Abu Dhabi spent Monday doing deals.
The pause in fighting
On Friday, it looked like the deal was finished. By Monday morning, it was back.
A US official confirmed Washington and Tehran have agreed to stop fighting for now. Talks resume today in Doha, with Pakistan brokering the talks. Trump said on Truth Social that Iran “requested” the meeting. His press secretary added that negotiator Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will fly to Doha, with lower-level meetings running in parallel. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said no talks had been scheduled. Both things are probably true.
The clearer signal came from Tehran. President Pezeshkian told a senior cleric on Monday that $6 billion — half of $12 billion in Iranian money frozen abroad held in Qatar — will be released and returned to Iran. That is the first real money Iran has seen from the deal. Money moving is a better indicator of confidence than anything either government says publicly.
The UAE’s new AI authority
While the diplomacy ran in circles, Abu Dhabi made a decision.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid approved a new Federal Authority for Artificial Intelligence and Data on Monday — bringing three separate digital bodies under one roof, led by Minister of State for AI Omar Al Olama.
On the same day, he announced that, within two years, half of all federal government services will run on AI that acts on its own — completing tasks and making decisions without a human signing off each time. The Ministry of Industry has already launched a 100-day plan to achieve that goal.
No other government has set a public target like this. Dubai government entities also moved to an optional four-day working week for the summer, running until September. Sheikh Mohammed linked it, at least partly, to what AI is already doing to the workload.
ADNOC goes to Argentina
The diplomatic noise has not slowed Abu Dhabi’s dealmaking.
ADNOC’s international arm XRG and Italy’s Eni each took a 32% stake in three gas fields in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta basin on Monday, tied to the Argentina liquefied natural gas project. Argentina’s YPF holds the remaining 36%. The project aims to export around 12 million tonnes of gas per year — one of the world’s largest new liquefied natural gas ventures.
It is XRG’s largest deal in South America. The point is geographical: Abu Dhabi wants a gas supply positioned far from the Strait of Hormuz.
Also, Monday: ADNOC Logistics & Services raised its profit forecast, with analysts tracking growth above 60% for the year on shipping demand. ADNOC Gas launched the $8 billion construction tender for the Bab Gas Cap project last week; rights were awarded, and construction begins this week.
Oil: a small bounce, a lower ceiling
The market’s response to the pause was calm.
Brent rose as much as 1.9% on Monday morning to $73.39, then settled around $73. That modest bounce tells you what traders made of the weekend: a flare-up that stayed contained, not a sign the deal is broken.
Wood Mackenzie cut its 2027 Brent forecast to $78 on Monday, projecting a further fall to $70 by the end of next year if the deal holds. Iranian oil is returning. The risk of a closed Hormuz has been priced out. Brent is below its 200-day moving average and in the bottom quarter of its year-to-date range.
Dubai Crude is still trading about $7 above Brent. That gap — between the global price and the Gulf price — is the most honest daily read on how much regional risk the market is actually carrying. Watch it today.
There is also a new argument starting about who controls the Strait. Iran met with Oman on Monday to discuss how Hormuz will be run going forward. Oman has told European governments privately that the pre-war rules are gone — ships may have to pay to pass. Rubio said last week that any fees would be “unacceptable.” If Iran makes this a formal position, it reshapes the economics of Hormuz for every UAE exporter and shipper, whatever else the talks produce.
One more market note: Dubai stocks are on course for their best quarter in a year.
Lebanon: still stuck
The Israel-Lebanon deal is four days old and already in trouble.
Israel struck Lebanon again on Monday — the first attack since Friday’s Washington signing. Hezbollah has not moved. Secretary-General Naim Qassem called the deal “null and void” on Sunday; that position had only hardened by Monday, putting Hezbollah on a collision course with the Lebanese government, which needs to show disarmament progress before Israel withdraws further.
The UAE and Saudi Arabia have backed the deal and Lebanese sovereignty. One detail Israeli analysts noted was that Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed received Syria’s foreign minister, Al Shaibani, on 25 June. The meeting is being read as Abu Dhabi trying to build influence in the region around Hezbollah, rather than through it.
Mubadala: out of Rio, into India
Two deals this week from Abu Dhabi’s state investment funds point in the same direction.
Mubadala Capital has asked Santander to find buyers for its 51.5% stake in HMobi — the company that runs Rio de Janeiro’s MetroRio and MetroBarra subway lines until 2048. The sale process will take several months.
At the same time, Cube Highways Trust — backed by ADIA and Mubadala — opened its roadshow for a $600 million October stock market listing in Mumbai. Out of the Brazilian metro, into Indian roads. Sell where prices are good, buy where the relationship with Abu Dhabi has just been deepened.
The wider trade picture
The UAE was also in Zurich and at the Eurasian table.
Trade between the UAE and the Eurasian Economic Union — the trade bloc covering Russia, Kazakhstan and three other former Soviet states has passed $33.3 billion, the Minister of State for Foreign Trade said at the Eurasia Economic Forum. In Zurich, the UAE’s Federal Centre for Competitiveness presented a paper on AI and national competitiveness at the IMD Global Summit — reinforcing the country’s place in the IMD’s top-five global competitiveness ranking.
Two forums, two messages: the UAE as a serious AI economy in Europe, and as a major trading partner across Eurasia. Both were delivered in the same week.
Watch today
Doha: Does Iran show up? Any statement on Hormuz administration, the $6 billion fund details, or sanctions relief will move markets.
Lebanon: Do Israeli strikes continue? Does the Lebanese government take a formal position on disarmament? Does Hezbollah act, or just talk?
UAE markets: Abu Dhabi stock exchange and Dubai stock exchange open with a pause, the ADNOC upgrades, and the Argentina deal are all in the mix. Brent at $73 and what comes out of Doha are the two things that matter most.
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