Gulf Unity Cracks as Hormuz Goes Empty for the First Time
A third US death since Friday, a Houthi blockade with a named target, and ADNOC's $6.2 billion bet that the war ends eventually
For the first time this cycle, Hormuz saw zero ships transit in a single day, and Gulf Arab unity over how to handle the war fractured.
Good morning. Steve Moore here, doing everything he can to make sense of what’s happening out there. A third US service member has died since Friday, with a fourth still missing. Mediators from Qatar, Pakistan, Egypt and Oman have proposed a 10-day ceasefire. Gulf officials are split on whether the US should escalate or stand down. The Houthis named a tanker they hit and warned all ships against calling at Saudi ports. And ADNOC still found $6.2 billion for a new gas project.
GULF UNITY CRACKS
Washington’s Gulf Arab allies are increasingly frustrated as US-Iran hostilities intensify, and their views on what happens next diverge. Some officials believe Trump should escalate further, including deploying ground troops into parts of Iran and seizing the Kharg Island oil export hub, reasoning that Iran won’t relinquish control of Hormuz without more pressure. Qatar, the main mediator alongside Pakistan, wants the opposite: immediate de-escalation, aimed at preventing a return to the March-April intensity, when the US and Israel were bombarding Iranian cities, and Tehran was firing thousands of drones and missiles across the Gulf.
That is a reversal from May, when Gulf states were unified in urging Trump toward diplomacy. “People are frustrated, angry,” said Michael Ratney, a former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia. “But they don’t say much publicly because they’re all trying to manage their relationship with Trump.” Some Gulf states are now deepening defence ties with European nations instead. The UAE wants European nations to begin the Hormuz de-mining mission they’ve pledged, and officials have raised this with European counterparts over the past week. No GCC state has committed funding to Iran’s proposed $300 billion reconstruction fund, and Gulf officials are bristling at being expected to pay for Iran’s rebuilding after absorbing Iranian strikes themselves.
A THIRD US DEATH SINCE FRIDAY
The US military has confirmed three service members dead in northern Iraq and Jordan since Friday, with a fourth still missing. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump would attend a dignified transfer ceremony for the fallen Tuesday evening. Trump told reporters the latest US strikes were “in honour” of the personnel killed.
A US official said Trump remains focused on punishing Iran for its attacks on shipping in the strait, and strikes will continue until he decides otherwise. Israel has sat out the fighting so far. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said Tuesday: “Israel has no interest, as of now, in entering the fray that has been demarcated between Iran and the US.” Israel is poised to rejoin if attacked directly or if Washington asks for assistance.
The Houthi threat now has a name attached.
THE HOUTHIS NAME THEIR FIRST TARGET
Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis said Monday they will impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, warning all vessels against calling at Saudi ports in a message sent directly to shipowners. The Kaifan, an oil products tanker owned by Kuwait Oil Tanker Co., became the latest vessel struck in the strait as the fighting empties the waterway. Rystad Energy estimates roughly 2.5 million barrels a day of Saudi crude moving through the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea is now at risk.
The Saudi-led coalition in Yemen said it is taking steps to protect ships in the area. Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Ministry said the kingdom will take “all necessary measures” to protect vessels under international law. Oil prices have risen roughly a fifth in July since hostilities resumed, and US retail gasoline prices have climbed back above $4 a gallon ahead of November’s midterms.
HORMUZ GOES EMPTY
Kpler ship-tracking data showed no vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, the first zero-transit day of this cycle, following just four commodity vessels on Monday, down from seven on Sunday. JPMorgan puts the collapse in stark numbers: confirmed Hormuz oil flows fell from 12.5 million barrels a day a week earlier to 5.1 million barrels a day. Shipowners are now offering large bonuses to get crews willing to sail through Hormuz at all. The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have kept sending tankers through the strait despite Iran’s threats, often with transponders switched off to avoid detection.
A tanker was struck by an unknown projectile northeast of Oman’s Limah early Tuesday and abandoned into a lifeboat — a Dynacom Tankers Management vessel. Indian Oil Corp cancelled a planned crude lifting from Basrah, and Mangalore Refinery cancelled a separate Iraqi cargo.
A ceasefire number is on the table. Washington is choosing strikes instead.
A FORMAL 10-DAY CEASEFIRE PROPOSAL
Mediators from Qatar, Pakistan, Egypt and Oman offered the US and Iran a 10-day ceasefire, suspending US airstrikes in exchange for Iran reopening Hormuz’s northern and southern shipping lanes. A US official said Trump remains focused on punishing Iran for its attacks on shipping in the strait, and strikes will continue until he chooses a different course. Iran’s Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni is in Pakistan Tuesday to discuss a path forward with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Pakistan and Qatar see a return to pre-9 July US-Iran positions as a first step, according to Iran’s semi-official ISNA, referring to the date the latest fighting over Hormuz began.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran has conveyed its willingness to talk through mediators. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei confirmed Tehran has received new proposals, without disclosing their contents. Ayatollah Khamenei’s earlier line that “Trump’s signature is worthless” remains the sticking point, and Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said Tehran won’t be forced back to the table while under military attack: “Iran’s actions in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf had global consequences and we became a global player”.
BRENT HOLDS $88-91 AS GOLDMAN FLAGS $120
Brent traded slightly higher on Tuesday, just below $90 a barrel. Goldman Sachs’ commodities research team warned that persistent Hormuz disruption could drive Brent above $120 a barrel by the fourth quarter as an upside scenario, with a baseline still around $80, noting Persian Gulf crude shipments have fallen below 45% of pre-war levels. Shipping volumes through the strait are now running at roughly the same level as the war’s height in March and early April.
A TENTH NIGHT OF STRIKES
US Central Command targeted Iranian military command centres, launch sites and air defences overnight, its tenth consecutive night of strikes. Iran attacked sites in Kuwait and Jordan in response, with Kuwait saying power and desalination plants were among those hit; the UK navy reported strikes on two vessels around the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian authorities say the US campaign has killed more than 50 people and wounded more than 500 since the latest flare-up began, including damage to bridges reported earlier in the week.
Abu Dhabi’s biggest domestic energy commitment of the war.
ADNOC’S $6.2 BILLION GAS BET
ADNOC took a final investment decision on the $6.2 billion Umm Shaif Gas Cap project with TotalEnergies, Eni and China National Petroleum Corporation. The project will unlock more than 600 million standard cubic feet a day of natural gas and associated liquids by 2030, equivalent to nearly 10% of the UAE’s current daily gas consumption, and includes Dh18.8 billion in EPC contracts awarded to Emirati and international consortia. The FID fits a broader push to reduce UAE reliance on Qatari gas via the Dolphin pipeline before that agreement expires in 2032.
The trade-agreement count keeps climbing.
37 CEPAS AND COUNTING
UAE Minister of Foreign Trade Dr Thani Al Zeyoudi confirmed the UAE has concluded 37 Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements, 18 already in force, and is negotiating about 20 more. Several additional agreements are expected to enter into force over the next two to three months, including Eurasian-group agreements, with talks with Canada nearing completion and the UAE-Philippines agreement targeted before year-end.
WATCH TODAY
The Gulf split. Whether the divide between escalation-minded and de-escalation-minded Gulf officials becomes public, and whether the UAE’s push for a European de-mining mission gains any formal commitment.
Ceasefire physics. Whether Trump publicly responds to the Qatar-Pakistan-Egypt-Oman framework, and whether Momeni’s Pakistan talks with Sharif produce a joint statement.
The Houthi threat. Whether the Saudi-led coalition’s protective measures prevent further tanker strikes, and whether Rystad’s 2.5 million bpd exposure figure via the East-West pipeline is confirmed by Saudi Aramco.
ADNOC follow-through. Market reaction on the ADX open, and whether Total and Eni disclose their working-interest splits in Umm Shaif.
That is where it stands this morning. Thoughts, tips, or corrections are always welcome—and if this is worth someone else’s time, please pass it on.
Back at 7:30 tomorrow.
— Steve
Steve Moore
Emirates Wire · launching 9 September 2026, National Liberal Club, London
emirateswire.co.uk · steve@emirateswire.co.uk