The war just came back to the UAE’s doorstep. US forces struck an island in the Strait of Hormuz overnight, and Iran responded within hours by launching a drone attack on the UAE and a missile-and-drone barrage on US air bases in Jordan, the first direct exchange between Washington and Tehran in roughly a month.
What happened overnight
US Central Command said it struck Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces on Larak Island after spotting them preparing to deploy mines into the Strait of Hormuz, calling it a “limited, precise action” intended “to protect civilian mariners, commercial shipping, and the free flow of global commerce.” Iran said several people were killed in the strike.
The IRGC retaliated with a missile-and-drone attack on US air bases in Jordan early Monday; Jordan’s military intercepted and destroyed all eight missiles before they caused damage. The UAE’s Ministry of Defence said its air force responded to an Iranian drone over the country’s territorial waters, and separately denied “unfounded” reports that the Al Minhad Air Base near Dubai had been struck.
Iranian media reported that authorities seized a bulk carrier near Bandar Abbas, officially over pollution, though the ship wasn’t identified, and claimed a supertanker was hit by mines in the strait early Monday. CENTCOM disputed that account directly, posting Monday that no ships had actually hit mines in Hormuz, a rare instance of the two sides contesting each other’s version of events within hours of the incident.
President Trump told Fox News on Monday morning that the US would respond to Iran’s attacks on US forces, without giving details, raising the prospect that today’s exchange is not the end of it.
The UAE’s response
Anwar Gargash, senior diplomatic adviser to President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, posted on X: “The state of neither war nor peace cannot be a sustainable solution, just as the policy of targeting the Arab Gulf states and Jordan has proven to be a failure.” He called for “a more realistic approach that goes beyond the memorandum of understanding that failed to outline a practical and acceptable road map,” a reference to the preliminary truce that collapsed in mid-August after repeated violations, and said any solution must include “returning navigation in the Strait of Hormuz to its normal state.”
It’s a pointed statement from one of Abu Dhabi’s most senior voices, and it lands the same week we’ve been reporting on the gap between the UAE’s stated Iran policy and reality on the ground. The UAE has been a frequent target since the war broke out on 28 February, with damage to energy infrastructure and airports pushing it toward a harder line, including officially severing all economic ties with Tehran in mid-August after accusing Iran of firing ballistic missiles at its territory. Today’s attack, arriving just as the new academic year brings residents back from their summer abroad, makes that tension impossible to ignore: the UAE is now a directly targeted party in a war it has spent months trying to keep at arm’s length.
Markets react
Brent jumped 2.4% to above $90 a barrel and European natural gas prices rose too, reversing last week’s slide toward $88. It’s the clearest sign yet that the “quiet recovery” in Hormuz shipping volumes we covered last week is now genuinely at risk; a return to sustained hostilities threatens both the physical flow of oil and the fragile confidence that’s been drawing tankers back through the strait.
The bigger picture
Current and former US and Iranian officials expect the conflict to drag on for months, with both sides deadlocked and short flare-ups now punctuating longer lulls. Trump’s vow of a further response suggests Washington and Tehran may be sliding back into a cycle of military escalation that could bring renewed volatility to energy and stock markets. The US said last week it had cleared mines from Hormuz shipping lanes, but allies have privately cast doubt on that claim; CENTCOM’s denial of today’s mine claim adds to the confusion over what’s actually happening in the strait rather than resolving it.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says Tehran remains open to diplomacy, but only if Washington drops its pressure campaign, arguing “pressure doesn’t work.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, meanwhile, told the Associated Press ahead of this week’s G20 finance meeting that the US would sanction a second bank doing business with Iran, warning: “This is going to be financial violence if we have to.”
“The UAE and the Widening Gulf Conflict: What Happens Next?” — this is exactly the conversation we’re convening on 9 September in London with senior figures from policy, diplomacy, media and business. Register free → https://events.emirateswire.co.uk/
— Steve