A ceasefire, a funeral, and a possible deal — all this weekend.
The window is real. It is also fragile.
Good morning. A ceasefire in Lebanon, a possible Iran deal “over the weekend,” oil down 3%, and tankers already moving. The window is real — and fragile. Iranian strikes continued as the ceasefire was announced, Tehran has added conditions, and the US House voted to limit Trump’s war powers. Hold both things at once.
The ceasefire, and what may follow
The US State Department announced on Thursday that Israel and Lebanon had agreed on a ceasefire. The terms: a complete end to Hezbollah fire and the withdrawal of its fighters from southern Lebanon. Israeli drone strikes killed at least six people in the south after the announcement was made.
Trump said separately that US-Iran talks are going “very well” and a deal could come “over the weekend.” He added the Strait would reopen “immediately upon signing.” Oil fell 3% — Brent to $94.78, WTI to $92.
Iran suspended its mediator exchanges in protest at Israeli operations in Lebanon while the ceasefire was being announced. The US House passed a resolution limiting Trump’s ability to keep fighting without congressional approval. A ceasefire signed while strikes are still happening is not yet a ceasefire.
One thing to hold in mind this weekend: the state funeral for Iran’s supreme leader begins in Tehran on Saturday. Khamenei was killed on the first day of the war in February. The ceremonies were delayed by the fighting. Iran has warned against any attack during the processions. Mojtaba Khamenei — his son, named the new supreme leader in March in a hereditary succession that Trump called “unacceptable” — will be the central figure. The date itself has drawn notice: July 4 is the 250th anniversary of US Independence Day. Any deal this weekend is being negotiated around that.
The GCC closes ranks — up to a point
The Gulf states condemned the Iranian strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain in the strongest collective terms of the war. The GCC’s secretary-general called the attacks “a dangerous escalation.” Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman publicly backed the two states. The UAE framed the Bahrain strikes as a violation of sovereignty. Former Qatari prime minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim called for “a collective position” on the Strait of Hormuz.
The GCC has still not made any concrete collective-defence commitment. Moody’s downgraded Bahrain’s credit outlook to negative this week. The words and the credit rating are going in opposite directions.
The Dayan Centre’s verdict on the UAE
The Moshe Dayan Centre published the most detailed English-language account yet of how the war has changed UAE strategic thinking. Worth reading in full. The main points:
Anwar Gargash has publicly named the UAE’s “real friends” — countries that provided defence help during the strikes: the US, Israel, France, Italy, the UK, Australia, Greece, South Korea and Ukraine. The UAE absorbed more strikes than Israel.
Gargash also said OPEC “no longer has economic utility” for Abu Dhabi — the sharpest official statement yet on why the UAE left in May. Abu Dhabi is now capping the share of any single country in any commodity at 50%. New pipeline plans run beyond Fujairah to Omani ports at Sohar, Muscat, Duqm and Salalah.
Less reported: Somalia cancelled all security and commercial deals with the UAE in January, following Saudi pressure. The Saudi-UAE split is not just words.
AD Ports closes its biggest deal — in Brazil
AD Ports finalised the $835 million acquisition of Corredor Logística e Infraestrutura, a Brazilian company with terminals at the ports of Santos and Itaqui — two of Brazil’s main sugar, soybean and corn export hubs. Largest AD Ports deal to date, first in Latin America. Expected to close in the second half of 2026.
Alongside the supply-chain diversification drive, this is Abu Dhabi getting a foothold in the food export chain of the southern hemisphere’s biggest producer.
du launches a $50m venture fund
Du launched a $50 million venture fund with Shorooq Partners, backing startups in AI, fintech, cybersecurity, cloud, gaming and enterprise software — a share reserved for UAE-based companies. UAE deal activity fell 37% in volume in Q1 2026, according to Ansarada. The fund runs against that.
A federal arrest and a compliance warning
US prosecutors arrested the chief executive of an Iranian technology firm called FPR for supplying US-origin networking and encryption equipment to Iran’s Ministry of Defence. The charging documents state that from 2011 to 2023, the defendant used personal eBay and PayPal accounts to purchase equipment shipped via UAE intermediaries to Iran.
This lands alongside US sanctions on four Iranian crypto exchanges this week, including Nobitex. Treasury holds around $1 billion in seized Iranian crypto and is actively pursuing more. The next designation may name UAE entities — worth noting for any free-zone, logistics or trade-finance operator.
MbZ in Morocco
Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed met King Mohammed VI in Morocco on Thursday. The Dayan Centre identifies Morocco as part of the UAE’s “Abrahamic Coalition” alongside Israel, Greece and India. Private visits during a live war are not routine.
Oil: Brent below $71, Kuwait triples output, Aramco goes to spot
Brent fell to $70.84 on Thursday.
Reuters reported that Kuwait’s crude output rose from 578,000 barrels per day in May to 1.65 million in June, hitting 1.9 million in the last ten days of the month. More than three times May’s figure.
Five large Saudi tankers carrying around 10 million barrels have already left the Strait, heading to Japan and China. Aramco is selling July crude on the spot market, breaking from its usual long-term contract pricing, to compete for Asian buyers. Its July official prices were set at $6 to $10 premiums, while rivals are discounting. Traders expect August cuts. Supply is back faster than demand. That is why Brent is at $70.
Watch this weekend
The Iran deal: Trump said, “over the weekend.” Watch for a statement, a leaked text, or for Tehran’s mediators to restart exchanges. Silence tells its own story. The frozen $6 billion is the reported sticking point.
Hormuz: Five Saudi tankers already out. Watch Lloyd’s war-risk premiums and whether any ADNOC or Qatari tanker makes a fully tracked crossing.
Sanctions: FPR arrest and Nobitex designation in the same week. Watch for any named UAE entity in the next US action.
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