Rubio reassured the Gulf. The IRGC hit a ship.
A Singapore-flagged container ship was struck in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, hours after the IRG told tankers to turn back. Oil had just erased the entire war premium. It didn't last.
The Ever Lovely, a Singapore-flagged container ship, was hit by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday — damage to the bridge, no casualties — hours after at least three vessels, including two oil supertankers, turned back after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps told them by radio not to cross. UKMTO, the UK’s military-merchant shipping liaison, classified it as an attack. Brent had fallen as low as $72.44 earlier in the day, its lowest since before the war. It climbed back toward $75 after the strike was reported.
The IMO formally paused its entire Hormuz seafarer-evacuation programme pending reconfirmation of safety guarantees. Iran denied responsibility for the strike. Some ships continued transiting regardless.
Rubio closes the Gulf tour: “a deal, but not at any price”
Marco Rubio ended his UAE-Kuwait-Bahrain tour at a Gulf ministerial in Manama on Thursday, telling foreign ministers: “We want a deal with Iran, we don’t want a deal at any price.” He said the Strait of Hormuz “must remain toll-free.” Oman’s Badr Albusaidi publicly aligned, saying future Hormuz arrangements “do not entail the imposition of any transit fees” — a notable step given that Iran and Oman announced on Tuesday they would jointly study service costs on the waterway.
Three Gulf priorities remain outside the 60-day negotiating window: Iran’s ballistic missile programme, Tehran’s ties to its regional proxies, and the structure of the frozen-asset release. Iranian President Pezeshkian confirmed the missile programme is not part of the current agreement. US-Iran technical talks resume in Switzerland on 29-30 June. Separate Gulf-Iran reconciliation talks are expected in Saudi Arabia, though no date has been confirmed. Behind the public unity, The Economist reports a clear split: the UAE views Iran as a permanent adversary and plans to build up its own defences rather than rely on diplomacy; Saudi Arabia has joined Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan in a coalition its own officials call “weak”; there is, in the Economist’s words, “no common GCC position on Iran.” Rubio’s tour papered over that divergence. It did not resolve it.
The most consequential detail from the Bürgenstock summit did not appear in any official readout. In an interview with UnHerd’s Sohrab Ahmari on the flight home, Vice President Vance described an agreement to establish a direct military-to-military channel between US Central Command and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, based in Doha: “They were like, ‘OK, fine, we’ll send somebody from the IRGC to go hang out in Doha with somebody from CENTCOM’ — and that’s how we’re going to settle a lot of these disputes.” Vance also said the UAE had already begun direct economic conversations with the Revolutionary Guard: “The Emiratis — by far the most hawkish, by far the most pro-Israel country in the GCC — they’re having conversations with the Iranians that have never happened before, including with the IRGC, about various types of economic incentives.” Thursday’s ship strike is a reminder of how far Iran’s military posture remains from its negotiating one.
IRGC declares Oman-IMO shipping corridor off-limits; Senate reverses Iran war vote
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps warned Thursday that ships may only transit the Strait of Hormuz via routes Iran itself designates — along its own coastline. The temporary corridor near Oman’s shore, set up by the IMO and Oman to evacuate stranded seafarers, is “unacceptable and dangerous.” The IRGC said it would take action against vessels that don’t comply. Hours later, the Ever Lovely was struck.
Trump warned Iran that tolls “could derail US negotiations.” But the Senate had already shifted the political backdrop overnight. On Wednesday, the chamber reversed the war-powers resolution it passed 50-48 the day before: after a closed-door meeting with Trump, Republican Bill Cassidy flipped his vote and Democrat John Fetterman voted against the resolution, producing a final count of 47 in favour and 50 against. The resolution, which would have constrained the White House’s ability to sustain the conflict, is now dead.
Brent erases the war premium — then bounces
Brent fell as low as $72.44 on Thursday, its lowest since 27 February — the day before the war began — before the ship-strike report pushed it back toward $75. Wednesday’s close was $73.74, down 4.3%. Oil has fallen more than 40% from its late-April peak of around $125.
The earlier fall reflected genuine traffic recovery. UN data logged 57 ships transiting the Strait from 23 June; Kpler counted at least 37 crossings on Monday alone. UAE oil exports have recovered to approximately 85% of pre-war levels. ADNOC cut its flagship Murban crude price for July to $101.48 per barrel, down from $104.44. Iran is drawing on the US 60-day export licence to sell crude through 21 August. Iraq is openly pushing OPEC to ease supply restrictions. The combination had priced out the war — until Thursday evening.
ADNOC awards Bab Gas Cap to global consortium; AI rig delivered early; LNG tanker resurfaces
Abu Dhabi’s Supreme Council for Financial and Economic Affairs awarded the Bab Gas Cap concession to ADNOC and six international partners on Thursday, described as the world’s largest gas cap development, producing 1.5 billion cubic feet of gas per day, a centrepiece of the UAE’s push to meet its own gas needs domestically. ADNOC Onshore holds 60%; TotalEnergies and bp each take 10%; CNPC International 8%; JODCO 5%; China ZhenHua Oil 4%; Korea GS Energy & Power 3%. A final investment decision is expected before the end of the year.
On the same day, ADNOC Drilling delivered its first fully automated walking island rig — AI-enabled, designated AD-300 — three months ahead of schedule, part of a six-rig offshore programme worth $1.54bn. Bloomberg also reported that the ADNOC LNG tanker Umm Al Ashtan reappeared on vessel-tracking systems at Das Island for the first time in nearly two weeks, the first sign that normal reporting from the Gulf’s LNG supply chain is resuming.
Burjeel $500mn sukuk lands on $1.6bn order book; Dubai reveals $681mn war-period package; DIFC reaches #7 globally
Burjeel Holdings priced its debut $500mn five-year sukuk Thursday on a final order book of $1.6bn — 3.2 times the amount on offer, with demand mostly local. It is the first tranche of a $1.5bn programme listed on the London Stock Exchange. Both S&P and Moody’s rate Burjeel below investment grade. The deal was shelved in February when the war began; it has now been printed at a yield close to 7%.
Reuters reported that Dubai’s top officials held an unreported meeting with hundreds of business leaders shortly after Iran’s March strikes — the catalyst for a central bank liquidity package and AED 2.5bn ($681mn) in Dubai government support for tourism and retail. HSBC has cut its 2026 Gulf growth forecast by 5 percentage points since February, and expects non-oil growth in Dubai and Abu Dhabi to fall more than 8 percentage points year-on-year. The Economist’s Gulf cover this week puts the number in context: Dubai’s low debt and deep cash reserves gave it room to absorb the shock that smaller states don’t have. Bahrain entered the war with government debt at 146% of GDP and less than two months of import cover in reserve; Qatar and Kuwait face double-digit economic contractions this year and may not return to pre-war output until 2028. The Economist’s verdict: “The war hasn’t killed the Dubai model, but it might kill the idea that everyone in the Gulf can be Dubai.”
DIFC climbed to 7th globally in the latest Global Financial Centres Index — its third consecutive year of double-digit growth.
Israel-Lebanon talks stall; Katz and Netanyahu say IDF stays "even if the US demands"
The fifth round of Lebanon-Israel talks in Washington ended without a joint statement. Lebanon wants a full Israeli withdrawal from the strip of southern territory Israeli forces hold; Israel says the army stays until Hezbollah is disarmed. Israeli broadcaster N12 reported “no progress.” Both sides denied a US official’s claim that Israel had withdrawn from any ground.
Defence Minister Katz repeated: “The IDF will not withdraw from its southern Lebanon security zone, even if there is an American demand.” Netanyahu publicly backed him. The Lebanese presidency confirmed that both sides had exchanged maps of proposed limited-withdrawal zones — a procedural step, not a political breakthrough. Iran’s foreign minister, in a call with his Saudi counterpart, backed Lebanon’s position of full Israeli withdrawal. The group working on de-escalation in Lebanon excludes Israel. The party doing the shooting is not in the room.
The Economist’s closing observation on the Gulf’s post-war position is worth carrying into the weekend: “For decades, Gulf rulers offered their subjects a bargain: stay out of politics, and we will keep you safe and prosperous. Oil and the promise of American protection are no longer enough to underwrite that contract. The war did not tear it up — but it has frayed it like never before.”
Watch this weekend and Monday
The ship strike. Identity of the vessel, confirmation or denial of Iranian responsibility, any UKMTO follow-up advisory, and whether further ships are turned back or targeted. This is the number-one Hormuz watch item going into the weekend.
Switzerland technical talks, 29-30 June. The second negotiating round — watch for early signals on nuclear inspections, how the frozen assets will be released and managed, and what happens to the Hormuz administration after the 60-day window closes. The Revolutionary Guard’s corridor warning will be on the table.
Israel-Lebanon, weekend. Whether a joint declaration materialises, whether Israeli fire continues in the south, whether the limited-withdrawal zone maps lead anywhere. A further day of violations reprices the Lebanon risk in the overall agreement.
Burjeel Sukuk in the secondary market; ADNOC Bab Gas Cap investment decision timing; Retail T-Sukuk Day 3 subscription. Quarter-end is 30 June. Monday will show how much of this week’s UAE capital markets activity was held.
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