Two days of strikes. The Strait is contested. Three sailors missing.
Brent at $78. Treasury pulled the waiver. Abu Dhabi kept moving.
Good morning. The ceasefire is over, and the strikes are still running. CENTCOM hit 80+ Iranian targets on 7 July; a second wave hit Bandar Abbas, Konarak and Chabahar on 8 July. Iran declared the Strait closed and fired on two ships using the Oman route. CENTCOM denied the closure. The US fired on a tanker carrying Iranian oil; three Indian sailors are missing. Iran struck US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan. About 6,000 seafarers are stranded in the area. Brent rose 5.3% to $78.09. Treasury revoked the Iranian oil waiver. JMIC raised Hormuz risk to “severe.” Qatar sent a mediation delegation to Tehran. Khamenei is buried today in Mashhad.
ADNOC signed a crude supply and joint-storage deal with South Korea for up to 24 million barrels. Gulftainer unveiled a $2bn strategy for Khorfakkan. ADX removes daily price limits on ETFs and futures from 3 August. The DFSA opened the biggest DIFC fund framework overhaul since 2010. None of the UAE’s $50bn pledge to Canada has materialised.
Two days of strikes — the Strait is now contested
CENTCOM struck more than 80 Iranian military positions around Bandar Abbas, Sirik and Qeshm on 7 July — air defence systems, coastal surveillance, command and control networks, surface-to-air missiles, anti-ship cruise missiles, drone launch sites and more than 60 IRGC small boats. A second wave on 8 July targeted Bandar Abbas, Konarak and Chabahar. Explosions were heard in Bushehr; Kharg Island reports were denied on the grounds.
Iran’s IRGC struck US installations at Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, the Fifth Fleet’s Salman port in Bahrain and an air base in Jordan. Kuwait confirmed intercepting two ballistic missiles and 13 drones; Jordan shot down five missiles; shrapnel damaged overhead power lines in Kuwait. A US military official said all Iranian attacks on US facilities “failed to cause major damage.” No US casualties.
Iran declared the Strait closed — only its approved route, it said, was safe. CENTCOM denied it. Iranian forces fired on two commercial ships using the Oman route. The US separately fired on M/T Settebello, a Palau-flagged tanker carrying Iranian oil in breach of the naval blockade; three Indian sailors are missing, and 21 were rescued. It was the eighth merchant vessel disabled by US forces in the area.
Trump at NATO Ankara: “I’ll let our wonderful negotiators keep talking if they want, but I don’t see it. I don’t like these people.” Iran’s Foreign Ministry said the US had “blatantly breached” the Islamabad memorandum. Parliament speaker Qalibaf: “The era of bullying and extortion is over. It leads nowhere. We don’t fold.” Pezeshkian cut short his trip to Najaf and returned to Tehran.
UAE Presidential Diplomatic Adviser Dr Anwar Gargash: “The Gulf Arab states cannot continue to be the target of Iran’s oscillation between the logic of escalation and the path of rationality, stability and peace.”
Treasury revoked the 22 June general licence on Iranian oil and petrochemical sales in USD, wind-down by 17 July. JMIC raised Hormuz risk from “considerable” to “severe.” EASA extended its Iran and Iraq airspace advisory to 31 August, adding a caution for Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, the UAE, and Saudi airspace. The IMO chief said approximately 6,000 seafarers are stranded in the area. A Qatari mediation delegation arrived in Tehran. Khamenei is buried today in Mashhad.
Brent +5.3% to $78.09; WTI +5.4% to $74.23
Oil had already risen by ~3% on 7 July after the waiver revocation. Watch ADNOC-linked equities and GCC sovereign spreads at Thursday’s open.
Al Rekayyat: crew evacuated, cargo secure
All 29 crew evacuated safely. Industry sources told Reuters the cargo was secure and the explosion risk was low “for now.” Iran’s Foreign Ministry called Qatar’s accusations “perplexing,” noting that vessels face risks when using routes not coordinated with Tehran.
ADNOC signs South Korea deal — up to 24 million barrels
Sultan Al Jaber and Kim Jong-kwan signed a strategic cooperation agreement on 8 July: stable crude supply of up to 24 million barrels, emergency supply coordination and joint crude storage on Korean soil — one day after the Treasury pulled the Iranian oil waiver.
Gulftainer’s $2bn strategy; Khorfakkan expansion
Gulftainer announced a $2bn trade infrastructure strategy to expand Khorfakkan, adding 2–3 million TEUs of inland logistics capacity. Khorfakkan sits on the Gulf of Oman — outside the Strait.
ADX removes ETF and futures price limits from 3 August; DFSA opens DIFC fund overhaul
ADX removes daily price limits on ETFs and futures from 3 August. Temporary halts remain available.
The DFSA opened a public consultation on the biggest overhaul of the DIFC Collective Investment Fund since 2010: scrapping rigid specialist classifications, removing some credit-fund requirements, and updating master-feeder structures.
UAE’s $50bn Canada pledge stalled; Lebanese president to White House on 21 July
None of the ~$50bn pledged to Canada has materialised, the FT reported. A UAE representative said investments remain in the early due diligence stage. Jean Charest, co-chair of the UAE-Canada Business Council: “We’re not ready.”
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has been invited to the White House on 21 July, ahead of potential discussions on the Gulf capital for Lebanon’s reconstruction.
Watch this week
Escalation: Third-round US strikes, further Iranian retaliation, and whether the Strait closure declaration changes routing and insurance for laden voyages.
Islamabad, 11 July: Whether the Qatar delegation in Tehran produces a new venue or format.
Khamenei burial: Watch for Mojtaba Khamenei’s first public appearance and any signal from the Assembly of Experts.
Markets open: ADNOC L&S, DP World and ADX ETF/futures on the price-limit removal.
Emirates Wire is published daily. Email steve@emirateswire.co.uk