The Deal That Isn’t — Yet
What’s actually in the US-Iran MOU, why it still isn’t signed, and how the UAE is already acting as if it were.
Good morning. The war is edging toward a framework — but barely. On Sunday, Trump posted on Truth Social that a deal to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz was “largely negotiated.” Brent crude fell roughly 6% on the headline, closing near $97 from $104. Within 24 hours, he walked it back. Tehran’s position hasn’t moved.
You need to live right now in the gap between those two descriptions. The difference between a deal that lands this week and one that stalls another month is the difference between Hormuz opening and another “hour away” moment.
Here’s the real story: whether the paperwork lands this week or not, Abu Dhabi is already operationalising a sanctions-agnostic corridor through Hormuz. That preemptive normalisation — and who can scale it fastest — will matter more for flows and prices than the exact wording of a one-page memo.
Today: what’s actually in the MOU, what’s still missing, and why the UAE isn’t waiting to find out.
I. The 14-Point MOU — What It Actually Says
Iran submitted a 14-point counterproposal to Pakistan, which has formed the basis of the current back-and-forth. The framework is being exchanged via Pakistani intermediaries, with US special envoy Steve Witkoff among the American interlocutors.
Agreed in principle:
Cessation of hostilities
Both sides reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days of signing
US lifts naval blockade and gradually releases frozen Iranian assets
In a broad statement, Iran agrees to give up its highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile, with exact relinquishment details deferred to post-deal negotiations
Three sticking points remain unresolved:
1. The uranium stockpile — 440kg of 60%-enriched uranium. The US demands Iran’s ~440kg of uranium enriched to 60% — near weapons-grade — be removed from Iranian soil. Iran wants to keep it under IAEA supervision at home. On 24 May, a senior Iranian source told Reuters flatly: “There has been no agreement over Iran’s highly enriched stockpile to be shipped out of the country.” The NYT reported the same day that two US officials say Iran has agreed “in a general statement” — with exact details deferred. This is the central contradiction, and it remains unresolved.
2. The sequencing of frozen assets. Iran wants asset release concurrent with signing. The US wants compliance milestones first. On Sunday, Iran’s Tasnim News Agency reported that frozen assets remain among the “unresolved” clauses. Since April, Iran’s parliament has framed the sequencing as a red line in repeated statements.
3. The nuclear enrichment timeline. The US wants Iran to halt enrichment entirely. Iran has proposed a five-year suspension, while Washington has pushed for up to 20 years. The gap between five and twenty is still unbridged. The nuclear programme itself — long-term enrichment rights, reactor infrastructure, inspection regime — is explicitly deferred to a 60-day follow-on negotiation after the MOU is signed, per Iran’s FM spokesperson Baghaei.
What Rubio actually said: On Monday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters: “We will either have a good agreement with Iran, or we will deal with it another way.” In a separate statement, he said a deal could come “today” and described what’s on the table as “a pretty solid thing.” He also told the NYT: “Right now, we have seven or eight countries in the region that are endorsing this approach.” Not the language of a deal that’s done — but not the language of a man walking away either.
Late development — Trump pulls back (Sunday evening, 25 May): Within 24 hours of declaring the deal “largely negotiated,” he posted on Truth Social: “It isn’t even fully negotiated yet. If I make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and proper one — not like the one made by Obama.” The reversal followed fierce pushback from hardline Republican senators, including Lindsey Graham and Ted Cruz, who condemned the 60-day framework as a “disastrous mistake.” Trump separately ordered his representatives not to “rush into a deal,” saying “time is on our side.” Israel is alarmed: Netanyahu’s office told ABC News the emerging terms are “bad,” expressing “serious concern and disappointment.” The blockade remains in full force.
The factional read: Tehran’s hardliners and the IRGC oppose any deal that ships the nuclear stockpile offshore — they read it as disarmament by another name. The reformist camp around President Pezeshkian is more flexible. Iran’s position, per FM spokesperson Baghaei, is that nuclear matters “will be addressed in negotiations for a final agreement and are therefore not part of the current deal.” Which faction is setting the terms on the 440kg question will determine whether there is a deal this week.
What to watch: The next 48–72 hours. Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir met Pezeshkian in Tehran as part of a mediation push. If a formal Iranian counter on the uranium question emerges, a deal becomes possible by the weekend. If not, the cycle resets.
II. ADNOC’s Dark Fleet — The UAE Is Already Acting
While diplomats negotiate, Abu Dhabi is already threading the needle.
Bloomberg reported this morning that ADNOC has been running dark transits through the Strait of Hormuz. Tankers switch off their AIS transponders before crossing and reappear on the other side. Satellite imagery shows ships docking at ADNOC’s Das Island LNG terminal even when no vessels are broadcasting positions nearby. Qatar is running the same playbook on LNG.
What ADNOC has managed:
At least four crude oil tankers have transited via ship-to-ship transfers and dark crossings, carrying approximately 6 million barrels
At least two LNG tankers have made it out since February, against a pre-war average of three LNG shipments per day
The tanker Mraweh carried cargo to Japan after going dark for over two weeks; the Mubaraz reappeared after a month off-grid, crossing southern India
The economics: Before the war, ADNOC was shipping 3.1 million barrels per day. Currently, dark transits carry a fraction of that. War-risk insurance now runs at 2–6% of hull value — against a pre-war rate of 0.25% — meaning a single crossing on a $200 million tanker costs up to $12 million in insurance alone. The dark fleet operation is commercially meaningful but is not a replacement for normal operations.
The strategic signal: The UAE isn’t using Iran’s shadow fleet — it’s running its own. Abu Dhabi has adopted tactics developed by Russia and Iran to evade sanctions, openly enough that Bloomberg can track them from space. This is not embarrassing. It is a message: the UAE has the infrastructure, the relationships, and the operational nerve to move product regardless of who controls the surface of the Strait. The operator that scales this corridor fastest will set the price and tempo of the reopening.
ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber warned that even if war ends today, restoring 80% of pre-conflict Hormuz flows will take at least four months — and full normalisation may not arrive before 2027. For anyone with supply-chain or energy exposure, that timeline matters more than the deal date.
III. The UK-GCC FTA — What It Actually Means for You
The UK-GCC free trade agreement, signed on 20 May — two days after the Barakah strike — is the first between a G7 country and the Gulf bloc. The headline is £3.7 billion. The substance is more specific than the headlines suggest.
What changes on day one:
GCC exports to the UK: significant tariff cuts, with many lines eliminated immediately; phased reductions on others
UK exports to GCC: phased tariff reductions across food and beverages, pharmaceuticals, and automotive
Customs clearance: both sides committed to clearing standard goods within 48 hours and perishable goods within 6 hours — treaty commitments, not targets
Services and digital — the underreported story:
The deal includes a “pioneering” cross-border data flows provision — one of the first of its kind in a GCC FTA — plus enhanced market access for financial services and technology. UK fintech, cybersecurity, and professional services firms now have a formal framework for entering the GCC market. Mutual recognition of digital signatures is included. For UAE Business Club members building a UK-UAE corridor, this is the practical upside that the £3.7bn headline misses.
Investment flows — already moving:
Total bilateral trade exceeded £50 billion in 2024, before any FTA
Dubai-based Esyasoft — ultimately linked to Abu Dhabi’s IHC — acquired Good Energy for £99.4 million in April 2025, one of several UAE plays into UK energy infrastructure
GCC sovereign wealth funds already hold major UK infrastructure stakes; the FTA adds investor protection and arbitration frameworks
Business mobility: The agreement includes commitments on the movement of skilled professionals and mutual recognition of qualifications for engineering and infrastructure professionals, specifically. If you are building a team that spans London and Dubai, this matters.
The timing signal: London formalised this deal days after Barakah and weeks into the worst Hormuz closure on record. That is not an accident. It is the same calculation the UAE is making with every dark transit and every defence cooperation announcement: position for the recovery, not the crisis.
What to Watch This Week
Trump’s own position: He pulled back from “largely negotiated” within 24 hours after Republican pushback. Watch whether he re-engages with the Witkoff channel or signals military escalation — either would move markets immediately
The 440kg question: Iran’s formal response on uranium disposal is the fulcrum. Watch for a Pakistani or Omani statement, or a US intermediary travelling to the region
Hormuz insurance premiums: Leading indicator. War-risk rates currently sit at 2–6% of hull value. Any sustained drop signals the market is pricing in a deal before it’s announced
ADNOC throughput: Bloomberg and Kpler updates on dark transit volumes will tell you whether ADNOC is scaling up in anticipation of an opening
Oman back-channel: Oman-mediated talks on the Hormuz fee are running in parallel with the MOU. If they go quiet, the MOU may be close. If they accelerate, both sides are hedging
Emirates Wire goes out every weekday. Subscribe and read the archive at emirateswire.co.uk.
Sources
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