The Toll That Lasted a Day
Iran struck five US bases overnight. Washington's 20% Hormuz fee came and went in 24 hours. The blockade did not.
Some days, the reversal is the story.
Steve Moore, here, there’s sense to be made. The 20% Hormuz toll lasted less than 24 hours. The blockade did not go with it. Iran hit five US bases across the Gulf in the night’s largest salvo. Two UAE mariners are now dead. Brent is at $86, and the backwardation is widening.
THE TOLL THAT LASTED A DAY
President Trump scrapped the 20% “United States Reimbursement Fee” on all Hormuz cargo less than 24 hours after announcing it. The reason, in his own words, calls from “different nations, kings and emirs” who said they would rather commit to “MASSIVE” US trade and investment deals than pay per hull. No dollar figure was attached. No countries named. No timeline given.
The naval blockade, however, is not gone. CENTCOM confirmed enforcement began at 00:01 GST on Wednesday. More than 20 US warships and hundreds of aircraft are in the region. Traffic that is neither Iranian-flagged nor carrying Iranian cargo is free to transit; Iranian ports and coastal areas are under interdiction. The toll lasted approximately as long as it took Gulf capitals to pick up the phone.
Wednesday brought a fifth consecutive day of US strikes. In a 90-minute afternoon operation, the US military hit missile storage and launch sites on Greater Tunb Island in the Persian Gulf near the Strait — followed by a second wave at 3 pm US Eastern time. “The strikes further degraded Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz,” CENTCOM said. Trump told Fox News: “We’re going to hit them very hard tomorrow night. We’re going to hit them very hard the night after. And then next week it gets really bad for them because the power plants come. We’re going to knock out all of their bridges unless they get to the table and negotiate,” Energy targets, he said, would be left “for last.
Iran’s Deputy FM Kazem Gharibabadi told IRIB that the June 17 US-Iran memorandum of understanding “no longer stands” — “America not only violated the MoU, but also dismantled it.” The IRGC said the strait will remain closed until the US ends its strikes and the blockade: “The region’s oil and gas exports are either available to all or available to none.” Trump told Fox Business on Wednesday evening, “We received a call just as I was coming here that they want to meet. They always want to meet.” Tehran has not publicly confirmed any desire to resume negotiations. Iran’s parliament speaker and top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said Iran has “no reason to remain committed” to the deal if it is not benefiting from it — but stopped short of formally withdrawing. Both sides have effectively declared it over; neither has officially closed the door.
The diplomacy collapsed. The hardware did not.
THE NIGHT’S STRIKES
Iran’s overnight retaliation was the largest and most damaging single salvo of the war. The IRGC and Iranian Army struck US military facilities across five Gulf countries: the US Fifth Fleet at Bahrain (weapons depots and fuel tanks), Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait (MQ-9 Reaper drones damaged), the Mina Abdullah logistics hub in Kuwait (set ablaze), Al-Azraq in Jordan (F-18 facilities and support infrastructure), and Al Udeid in Qatar — where commercial satellite imagery confirmed damage to F-18 repair facilities.
Kuwait absorbed the worst of it. Five cruise missiles, one ballistic missile and 33 drones targeted vital and civilian infrastructure across the emirate. Four Navy personnel were injured. One Kuwait Navy vessel was hit. A building was set ablaze. Jordan intercepted three ballistic missiles. Bahrain sounded sirens multiple times. The IRGC said the attacks were in response to US strikes on coastal Iranian positions — the same stated rationale as every previous wave.
Kuwait has now been struck at least 17 times since the April 8 ceasefire, more than any other Gulf Arab state. The strikes have hit Ali Al Salem five times, the Kuwait Petroleum Corp headquarters, the airport (twice), oil refineries, and offshore drilling platforms. A Bloomberg survey last month put Kuwait’s 2026 GDP contraction at 7.9% — the economic cost of hosting the US military presence that has made it a primary target.
CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper said Iran has “intentionally attacked seven commercial ships over the past seven days”, with “nearly a dozen” civilian crew killed, injured or missing. US strikes in the same period killed seven Iranian soldiers at Iranshahr barracks and wounded more than 260 across Iran, per Tehran’s health ministry.
The human cost keeps rising.
TWO DEAD
The International Maritime Organisation confirmed on Wednesday that a second seafarer aboard the UAE-flagged tankers Mombasa and Al Bahiyah has died from injuries sustained in Tuesday’s Iranian cruise missile strike. The death toll from the attack — which Iran claimed as a strike on “offending supertankers” — now stands at two. CENTCOM’s count of civilian casualties across seven commercial ships in seven days stands at nearly a dozen.
UAE MoFA Minister of State Lana Nusseibeh, speaking at the EU Foreign Affairs Council in Brussels, called the attack “piracy” and a threat to “global energy security.” She said the UAE is “closely aligned with our European partners when it comes to peace and security in the Gulf and the freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.”
Abu Dhabi and Muscat are talking. The question is what they are agreeing.
THE UAE-OMAN SUMMIT
President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed hosted Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tarik for official talks in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday — the highest-profile UAE-Oman meeting since the Muscat “median lane” talks collapsed on Saturday. The timing is not coincidental. Oman has positioned itself as the only channel with meaningful access to Tehran that the US will tolerate; Abu Dhabi’s decision to host Sultan Haitham signals Emirati backing for that role continuing, and Emirati alignment on the shape of whatever off-ramp is being constructed.
The UAE also condemned Iran’s renewed strikes on Bahrain and Jordan and pledged solidarity with both, maintaining the posture of a state that is not a belligerent but is unambiguously on one side of the ledger.
Markets price the night before the dawn.
BRENT AT $86
Brent September futures rose to $86.19/bbl in Wednesday Asia trade — the highest since 12 June, up $1.46 on the day, roughly 11% across two sessions and 40.92% year to date. The first-month contract now trades $8.92/bbl above the sixth-month: the widest backwardation since 10 June, and the market’s clearest signal that traders are pricing near-term supply disruption, not medium-term recovery.
Iran-linked vessels with limited AIS data pushed through the Strait of Hormuz in the hours before the blockade went live at 00:01 GST. The first operational details are now in: US forces assisted a double-digit number of commercial vessels overnight and turned back two Iranian ships. Only a handful of non-Iranian vessels transited after enforcement began. War-risk insurance remains at eight times normal. Analysts polled by Moneycontrol put the ceiling at $90–$95 if disruption widens; MUFG, ING and Goldman flagged that threatened strikes on Iranian power plants would raise that ceiling further.
The IMO Secretary-General told Bloomberg Radio on Wednesday that the Strait of Hormuz remains “too dangerous for commercial vessels to transit” — the body’s most significant warning to the shipping industry since the June agreement. The EU aviation safety regulator raised its threat level for airlines flying through the Middle East and cautioned carriers against operating through the airspaces of Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE and the Gulf of Oman.
Thursday’s Asia open will be the first full Brent session under an enforced blockade. ADCB reports Q2 earnings Thursday — the first Gulf bank read on what war exposure looks like on a balance sheet.
The capital does not wait for the ceasefire.
THE BUSINESS BLOCK
The UAE-India Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement entered into force on Wednesday. The UK eliminates tariffs on 96.8% of tariff lines, covering 97.7% of bilateral trade. India immediately suspends tariffs on 30.3% of trade and phases out tariffs on another 47%. The UAE-India CEPA Council opened applications for Start-Up Series 2.0 on the same day.
The Central Bank of the UAE approved the Distributed Digital Stable Coin (DDSC) — a dirham-backed stablecoin — for operational launch. Hub71 Abu Dhabi announced its portfolio companies have raised $2.7bn to date. Mubadala is reviewing a commitment to a Korean PE fund targeting defence-components maker MNC Solution — the latest Gulf capital flow into Asian defence supply chains. Air India Express operated the first international service from Navi Mumbai International Airport: three weekly flights to Abu Dhabi.
Axios profiled TAMM — the UAE’s AI-powered government-services super-app — as Abu Dhabi’s “big bet on AI government.” The UAE's digital and capital infrastructure is not pausing for the conflict.
South of the strait, a second front is reopening.
YEMEN
The 2022 Saudi-Houthi informal truce is over. Houthi rebels declared it void on Monday and warned all international airlines against Saudi airspace. Abha International Airport remained closed for a second consecutive day on Wednesday — at least 11 departures were cancelled, including Flydubai and Air Arabia services to Dubai and Sharjah; Air Cairo suspended all Abha service; Canada and the UK issued travel advisories against the Saudi-Yemen border region.
The UN Assistant Secretary-General for Political Affairs, Khaled Khiari, told an emergency Security Council session that “Yemen and the wider region cannot afford another cycle of escalation.” Trump has publicly backed potential Saudi military action against the Houthis. Analysts are watching whether Riyadh responds militarily and whether Houthi follow-on strikes target Saudi oil infrastructure — a different order of magnitude of disruption.
Some signals are quieter than others.
THE DIPLOMATIC SCORESHEET
Qatar’s MoFA on Tuesday strongly condemned repeated Iranian attacks on Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait — a notable stiffening of Doha’s public tone and the clearest sign yet that Gulf solidarity is holding under military pressure. Iran’s embassy in Abu Dhabi confirmed the release of 55 Iranian fishermen previously detained by UAE authorities on 14 July — framed by some Iranian channels as a de-escalation gesture, though Tehran’s simultaneous declaration that the MoU is dead limits what that gesture can mean in practice.
The quietly significant detail in the diplomatic picture: Gulf capitals are backing the Oman channel while publicly aligning with Washington, managing a relationship that is — as this week has made clear — publicly allied yet privately strained over what happens to Hormuz after the fighting stops.
In Washington, two domestic signals worth tracking: Congressional Republicans, led by Vance, are moving forward with war funding despite the political risk of backing an unpopular campaign that has driven up consumer prices. And Trump administration officials are advancing plans to extend the domestic shipping waiver on oil, fuel and fertiliser — a quiet acknowledgement that supply disruption may be prolonged.
WATCH TODAY
ADCB Q2 earnings. First Gulf Bank results from the war period. The question is no longer whether the numbers are affected — it is by how much, and whether management guidance suggests the banks have priced in a conflict of this duration.
The blockade’s first full trading day. Thursday’s Asia Brent open is the market’s first clean read on an enforced blockade. Monitor whether the dark fleet continues to push through and whether any vessel is interdicted.
Abu Dhabi’s follow-through. Whether MBZ or Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed issues a personal statement on the second mariner’s death. Whether ADNOC L&S announces escort protocols or suspends sailings.
Saudi Arabia and Abha. Whether Riyadh responds militarily to the Houthi strike and whether Abha airport reopens. Houthi threats against Saudi oil infrastructure are the most consequential escalation risk outside Hormuz.
Trump’s Thursday address. 9 pm EDT Thursday / 2 am BST Friday / 6 am UAE Friday. The first formal address since the MoU was declared dead by both sides. Watch for language on Iran’s power plants, Gulf investment commitments, and the duration of the blockade.
Tomorrow will tell us whether the blockade bites, whether the bank numbers tell the truth, and whether Saudi Arabia stays out of this war or joins it.
Still watching. Back tomorrow. — Steve
Emirates Wire launches on 9 September 2026 at the National Liberal Club, London.
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steve@emirateswire.co.uk