The UAE Chooses Sides
It Just Won’t Tell You Which Ones
On 13 May, the BRICS foreign ministers met in New Delhi under India’s chairmanship. Iran’s Abbas Araghchi accused the UAE on the record of being “directly involved” in aggression. The UAE retorted that Iran had struck its territory in violation of international law. No communiqué followed; India issued a chair’s statement instead — code for: we couldn’t agree.
That room captures the last ninety days: two states that joined the same club to keep options open now facing each other across a table, trading wartime accusations.
Here is the argument up front. The UAE’s half-century doctrine — never choose — snapped under fire. Abu Dhabi took wartime actions it still won’t fully acknowledge, then started swapping rooms that once gave it cover for a few deep bilateral relationships. Call this “the gap”: act privately, deny publicly, let others confirm. The war blew that gap open and made it visible.
The Old Doctrine
For fifty years, the organising principle was simple: don’t choose. Stay close to Washington, keep talking to Tehran, welcome Chinese money, normalise with Israel, coordinate with Saudi Arabia, join every room that matters and let no one own you. Joining BRICS in 2024 extended that logic. Eighteen months later, in a BRICS room, the UAE was named as a belligerent in a war it officially denies fighting.
The Method: What Abu Dhabi Did vs. What It Said
Between March and April 2026, Iran launched large salvos of missiles and drones at UAE targets, according to public reporting. Hedging doesn’t survive that. When cities are hit, neutrality ends. The UAE called Israel. Israel came.
Iron Dome Israel deployed an Iron Dome battery and personnel to the UAE — a first outside Israel — per Axios and later on-the-record confirmation by US envoys. Abu Dhabi did not announce it.
Lavan strike On 8 April, as a ceasefire took effect, the UAE is reported to have covertly struck Iran’s Lavan Island refinery (WSJ, citing officials). Abu Dhabi neither confirmed nor denied, referring broadly to a right to respond.
Netanyahu's visit Israel says Netanyahu met MBZ in Al Ain on 26 March; a former aide provided details, including MBZ personally driving Netanyahu from the plane. Abu Dhabi called the report “entirely unfounded.”
Three actions. Three denials or silences. One method: cooperate privately, deny publicly, let others confirm.
Pipeline On 15 May, Abu Dhabi announced plans to accelerate a west-east corridor to Fujairah, bypassing Hormuz and targeting a capacity increase from roughly 1.8 to 3.6 million b/d by 2027 (Bloomberg). Reporting indicates Israeli systems in the defence architecture and Chinese firms on contractor lists. No denial needed. Infrastructure is policy.
Four moves. There are wartime methods. The fourth hard-wires the method into peacetime.
Multilateral Cover Is Thinning
The GCC’s statement was, in Anwar Gargash’s words, “the weakest historically, considering the nature of the attack and the threat it posed to everyone.” After quitting OPEC, officials told Bloomberg they were reviewing contributions to “various multilateral organisations.” Even GCC membership is reportedly under review.
OPEC: left. BRICS: paralysed. GCC: in question. Abraham Accords: shifting from normalisation toward operational military cooperation.
This isn’t just choosing sides; it’s choosing rooms — and walking out of some.
India Is the Economic Anchor
Modi arrived on 15 May to meet MBZ and lock in more energy cooperation, after January’s $3 billion LNG deal and a defence letter of intent. This is the ledger’s other side: rooms out, relationships in.
Washington security and technology partner — the UAE joined the US-led Pax Silica initiative on 15 January as its ninth signatory, aligning with Washington, Israel, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the UK on AI and semiconductor supply-chain security. Saudi Arabia was not invited.
Jerusalem operational ally — Iron Dome confirmed by US envoys; a wartime visit claimed by Israel, disputed by Abu Dhabi.
New Delhi economic anchor — $3 billion LNG deal, defence cooperation, and a 4.5-million-strong diaspora as a strategic asset.
I2U2 — the India-Israel-UAE-US grouping founded in 2022 — is drifting from economic forum to security architecture. Formally, it still lacks a mutual-defence clause; bilaterally, UAE-Israel and UAE-US have hardened into de facto partnerships outside the umbrella.
The old doctrine: be in every room. The new doctrine: build a few right relationships, own them privately, and manage the public version as long as possible.
Saudi Arabia: The Hinge
When missiles started landing, Abu Dhabi’s first call was to Riyadh. Bloomberg reports the UAE tried and failed to secure a joint military response. Riyadh said no. Abu Dhabi turned to the country that would say yes: Israel.
That refusal is the hinge. The alignment looks less like design and more like a consequence.
Riyadh did strike covertly — within its own timeline, with advance notice to Tehran, on its own terms, with its own offramp built in. One crystallising moment: after Iran hit the Borouge petrochemicals complex, the UAE’s response was coordinated with Israel. Not Saudi Arabia. Not the GCC. Israel.
In parallel, per the FT, Riyadh is floating a regional non-aggression pact with Iran modelled on the Helsinki Accords. Western capitals are receptive. Diplomats doubt the UAE would join.
Two answers to the same war: Iran as a permanent neighbour — build guardrails. Iran as adversary — build an alliance. Bloomberg’s sources described the OPEC exit as “little brother no longer wanting to be tied down by big brother.” The failed coordination call is when little brother stopped asking.
Objections
“The UAE has always hedged.” True — but the mix changed. Leaving OPEC, accepting Israeli troops on Emirati soil, hard-wiring a Hormuz bypass into energy strategy: that’s not classic hedging. That’s path-dependence.
“This is temporary crisis behaviour.” If so, you wouldn’t lock in a 2027 pipeline doubling or joining Pax Silica’s tight circle. Those are multi-year commitments.
“Saudi will reel Abu Dhabi back.” It might — but Riyadh’s refusal at the hinge moment forced Abu Dhabi to externalise security to Israel and the US. Reversal requires Riyadh to change its own Iran strategy first.
What This Means If You’re Here
This isn’t crisis management. It’s a rebuild. The Washington-Jerusalem-New Delhi triangle is real and mutually reinforcing. Capital and security flows will follow.
Security, the UAE has declared an enemy in Tehran in a way it didn’t eighteen months ago. Iron Dome deployments matter; so does Tehran’s detailed knowledge of what Abu Dhabi has done.
Compliance and legal: as covert cooperation becomes public — confirmed by other governments, reported by the WSJ, FT, and Bloomberg — counterparties in energy and defence-adjacent sectors face tighter diligence. Abu Dhabi’s public denials don’t shield others in the transaction.
Institutionally, the multilateral cover — OPEC, GCC consensus, BRICS non-alignment — is fraying. Replacements are deeper but narrower bilaterals, less forgiving when they sour.
Markets treat categorical denials from Abu Dhabi as signals, not reassurance. Watch whether the gap between action and acknowledgement closes — or widens.
What to watch in 3-6 months: UAE-Saudi operational coordination resumes; a GCC de-confliction mechanism with Iran emerges; Israeli air defence departs without replacement; the Fujairah bypass stalls; or, conversely, joint UAE-Israel air-defence exercises become overt. Absent those, the new doctrine is sticking.
The Line
The UAE fought a war it officially didn’t fight, hosted a leader it officially didn’t receive, struck a facility it officially didn’t target, and joined an alliance it officially doesn’t have.
Right now, it may be the Gulf’s most consequential — and most opaque — actor. The question is whether markets and partners continue to price opacity as a feature rather than a risk.
The room in New Delhi suggested the answer is not indefinite.
Emirates Wire goes out every weekday. You can subscribe and read the archive at www.emirateswire.co.uk
Sources
- **TRT World / Reuters / Dawn** — *Iran and UAE clash at BRICS foreign ministers’ meeting in New Delhi* (13 May 2026)
https://www.trtworld.com/article/8fc45381d20d
- **Deccan Herald** — *BRICS FMs meet in Delhi; Iran slams UAE for colluding with Israel, US* (13 May 2026)
https://www.deccanherald.com/india/brics-fms-meet-in-delhi-iran-slams-uae-for-colluding-with-israel-us-4003279
- **Times of Israel** — *War overshadows BRICS forum bringing together Iran and UAE in India* (12 May 2026)
https://www.timesofisrael.com/war-overshadows-brics-forum-bringing-together-iran-and-uae-in-india/
- **The National** — *Iran war overshadows BRICS meeting as foreign ministers gather in India* (14 May 2026)
https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/2026/05/14/iran-war-overshadows-brics-meeting-as-foreign-ministers-gather-in-india/
- **The National / Kurdistan 24** — *Dr Anwar Gargash: GCC response was weakest historically* (27 Apr 2026)
https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2026/04/27/dr-anwar-gargash-says-irans-ferocious-attacks-on-gulf-were-premeditated/
- **Axios** — *Israel sent Iron Dome system and troops to UAE during Iran war* (26 Apr 2026)
https://www.axios.com/2026/04/26/israel-iron-dome-uae
- **Times of Israel** — *In first official confirmation, US envoys say Israel sent Iron Dome to UAE* (11 May 2026)
https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-first-official-confirmation-us-envoy-says-israel-sent-iron-dome-to-uae/
- **Wall Street Journal** — *The U.A.E. Has Been Secretly Carrying Out Attacks on Iran* (11 May 2026)
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-a-e-has-been-secretly-carrying-out-attacks-on-iran-f1745a0d
- **The Guardian / NYT / Netanyahu PMO** — *Benjamin Netanyahu made secret trip to UAE at height of the Iran war* (13 May 2026)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/may/13/benjamin-netanyahu-made-secret-trip-to-uae-at-height-of-the-iran-war
- **Wall Street Journal** — *Former Netanyahu aide says he joined leader on secret trip to U.A.E.* (14 May 2026)
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-us-china-news-2026/card/former-netanyahu-aide-says-he-joined-leader-on-secret-trip-to-u-a-e
- **Bloomberg / Reuters / Lloyd’s List** — *UAE to complete new Hormuz bypass pipeline, doubling capacity, by 2027* (15 May 2026)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-15/uae-to-complete-new-hormuz-bypass-oil-pipeline-by-2027
- **BNN Bloomberg** — *UAE reviewing multilateral ties after OPEC exit* (29 Apr 2026)
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2026/04/29/uae-reviewing-multilateral-ties-after-opec-exit-but-rules-out-more-departures
- **Reuters** — *UAE leaves OPEC* (28 Apr 2026)
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/
- **Reuters** — *UAE joins AI supply chain program Pax Silica* (14 Jan 2026)
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/uae-bolsters-economic-ties-with-us-by-joining-ai-supply-chain-program-2026-01-14/
- **The National** — *What is Pax Silica* (12 Jan 2026)
https://www.thenationalnews.com/future/technology/2026/01/13/what-is-pax-silica-the-tight-tech-circle-formed-by-the-us-that-incl/
- **Bloomberg** — *UAE Tried in Vain to Get Saudis to Coordinate on Iran Response* (15 May 2026)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-15/uae-tried-in-vain-to-get-saudis-to-coordinate-on-iran-response
- **Bloomberg** — *UAE Said to Have Hit Iran Earlier in War as Israel Ties Grow* (12 May 2026)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-12/uae-is-said-to-have-struck-iran-as-it-deepens-ties-with-israel
- **New York Times** — *Saudi Arabia and U.A.E. Carried Out Secret Attacks in Iran* (14 May 2026)
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/14/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-uae-iran-attacks.html
- **Financial Times** — *Saudi Arabia floats Middle Eastern non-aggression pact with Iran* (14 May 2026)
https://www.ft.com/content/ab78e60e-7a41-4943-a1a5-bd60b4ca31b9
- **Bloomberg** — *UAE Bristled at Saudis for Years Before Iran War Tipped Scales* (29 Apr 2026)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-29/uae-bristled-at-saudis-for-years-before-iran-war-tipped-scales
- **Bloomberg** — *Why the UAE and Saudi Arabia Have Drifted Apart* (30 Apr 2026)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-30/uae-quits-opec-how-the-united-arab-emirates-and-saudi-arabia-drifted-apart
- **Reuters** — *India, UAE sign $3 billion LNG deal* (19 Jan 2026)
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-uae-agree-boost-trade-defence-ties-finalise-lng-deal-leaders-meeting-2026-01-19/
- **Reuters** — *India’s Modi to begin five-nation tour, including UAE* (11 May 2026)
https://www.reuters.com/world/indias-modi-begin-five-nation-tour-including-uae-amid-middle-east-crisis-2026-05-11/
- **The Times** — *Old alliances, Dubai’s glass houses and a reordering of the Arab world* (15 May 2026)
https://www.thetimes.com/world/middle-east/article/dubai-israel-iran-war-uae-emirates-96prb2gwq