The war was a buying window. Gulf state funds just proved it.
Gulf state funds wrote record cheques while the region was at war. Doha talks ran in separate rooms. Trump privately weighed returning to war before choosing talks. Oil is back to pre-war levels.
Good morning. The Doha talks are real — quiet, indirect, and so far producing nothing in public. Gulf state funds spent the first half of 2026 writing the biggest cheques in their history. Oil is back where it was the day before the war. And Netanyahu flew to Lebanon to say Israel isn’t leaving.
Doha: two rooms, one deal
The US and Iranian technical teams met in Doha on Wednesday for the first time — in separate rooms, with Qatar carrying messages between them. The session covered Hormuz shipping and the ceasefire.
Qatar’s foreign ministry was careful about what it said: there were “currently no high-level meetings between the Iranian and American sides” and “no meeting at any level with the American side has been scheduled for the coming days.” Tehran spent the day in public saying Iran is “ready for war if dialogue fails” and adding conditions. Quiet progress, loud statements. The question is whether the talks move faster than the rhetoric.
By evening, Trump said the meetings had gone “very well” and used the word “denuclearisation” publicly for the first time. Vance confirmed that lower-level negotiators are covering both Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear programme. Witkoff and Kushner met Qatar’s Emir. The talks will continue.
The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday, citing a US official, that Trump has privately considered returning to all-out war and has spoken to his defence secretary and military chiefs about options. He has chosen talks for now. “Very good meetings” means something different in that light.
Gulf state funds: the war was a buying window
Gulf state investment funds committed a record $54 billion in the first half of 2026 — 62.6% of all such investment globally. The normal share is around 40%. The war was not a reason to stop. It was a reason to buy.
ADIA is a cornerstone investor in what may be Hong Kong’s biggest stock market listing this year: Luxshare Precision, the Chinese electronics maker, is raising $3.1 billion. ADIA put in $45 million, alongside Temasek, Singapore’s GIC, Hillhouse, Tencent and Millennium. Pricing is 7 July, listing on 9 July.
UAE stocks: up, but not back
Dubai’s main index rose 7.4% in the second quarter — its best quarter in a year. Abu Dhabi rose around 2%. Thirty-four of the 41 stocks in Dubai’s index ended the quarter higher.
Both markets are still well below February. Dubai is roughly 12% down on its pre-war level, Abu Dhabi about 9%. Century Financial’s chief investment officer said the rebound “can mainly be attributed to the easing of the war risk.” The rally is pricing peace. If peace goes, so does the rally.
Dubai Residential REIT bought 220 townhouses in Jebel Ali Village for AED 894 million on Wednesday, taking its 2026 acquisitions to 276 homes and adding roughly AED 75 million in annual rental income.
Oil: the new range, and how the UAE kept pumping
Brent traded between $71.90 and $73.45 on Wednesday. Magda Chambriard, chief executive of Brazil’s Petrobras, told Reuters: “$72-$75 does seem to be the new range.” That is where Brent was on 27 February, the day before the war began.
Two things point it lower from here. OPEC+ is expected to add another 188,000 barrels per day in August, matching the increases agreed for June and July. And for the first time in its history, no Brent cargoes are scheduled to load in August — a North Sea maintenance quirk, but one that pushes more attention onto other price markers. The UAE’s Murban crude fell to $69.01 on Wednesday.
Bloomberg reported Wednesday that UAE oil exports have fully recovered to pre-war levels. ADNOC got there three ways: the Fujairah pipeline, which moves 1.5 million barrels a day to the Gulf of Oman coast without touching the Strait; tankers crossing Hormuz with transponders off; and ship-to-ship transfers outside the Strait once vessels were clear. ADNOC also sold tens of millions of barrels directly on the spot market and told buyers to collect from inside the Gulf. Goldman Sachs has said Hormuz traffic itself may never fully return to pre-war levels — in part because the UAE and Saudi Arabia have shown they may not need it to.
ADNOC is also changing how it prices three of its oil grades — Upper Zakum, Das and Umm Lulu — moving from its own Murban price to the Dubai price. Those three grades have more sulphur than Murban and are closer in quality to Oman and Qatari crude, which are already priced against Dubai. The gap between Murban and Dubai prices that opened during the war made the case for the switch harder to ignore. ADNOC’s team has visited Singapore and Japan to brief buyers. No timeline. ADNOC declined to comment.
Lebanon: Netanyahu visits, indefinite becomes policy
Benjamin Netanyahu flew to occupied southern Lebanon on Wednesday and said, “Israel won’t leave as long as Hezbollah threatens us.” His defence minister went further — Israeli troops will stay “indefinitely” in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza. What had been implied is now stated.
Al Jazeera published a piece under the headline “The Lebanon-Israel agreement is paving the way for the next war.” A deal with no disarmament deadline and no means to enforce compliance is not a deal. It is a pause.
Three Abu Dhabi economy stories
Ta’ziz — the joint venture between ADNOC and the state investor ADQ — is studying a plant to produce MDI, a chemical used to make rigid foam for refrigerators, insulation panels and car parts. No such plant has been built in the UAE before. It is part of a push to process more of Abu Dhabi’s oil and gas at home rather than export raw materials.
A UAE-based AI company, 1001, raised $30 million in a round led by Lux Capital, with Saudi Arabia’s state investment fund among the backers. It builds prediction tools for ports, energy companies and airlines.
Arab Bank Switzerland — a Geneva private bank managing around $25 billion — opened an office in Dubai’s financial district, targeting wealthy families and entrepreneurs.
New visa rules
Starting this week, nationals of Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, Kenya, and South Africa can apply for a 14-day or 60-day UAE entry visa. Previously, the scheme was open mainly to Indian nationals. Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and Canada have also been added to the list of countries whose residents qualify, alongside the US, EU and UK.
Dubai also changed the rules on property-linked long-term residency, removing the minimum property value for sole owners and easing conditions for jointly held properties.
Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed is in Washington to discuss AI and economic ties.
Watch today
Doha: Does the next session produce any public statement on Hormuz, oil sales or the frozen funds? Does Trump push for a direct meeting that Qatar has said is not planned?
OPEC+ Sunday: The 188,000 barrels-per-day August increase is expected but not confirmed. Watch Iraq’s position.
UAE markets: Both exchanges open the new quarter. Dubai Residential REIT’s AED 894 million deal and ADNOC’s pricing change are the two stories to follow. Forty-nine degrees today — watch gas and power stocks.
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