They were both in Doha. They didn’t meet.
The US and Iran sent delegations to Qatar talked to mediators in separate rooms, Dubai resumed flights to Tehran, ADNOC set oil export record and Brent closed its worst quarter since 2020.
Good morning. The Doha talks happened — in the sense that both sides were in the same city. They were not in the same room. Meanwhile, the UAE quietly reopened flights to Tehran, ADNOC broke export records, and oil just had its worst quarter since 2020.
The Doha non-meeting
The US and Iran went to Doha on Tuesday. They did not meet.
Iran’s foreign ministry said its officials would talk to Qatar’s government — acting as a go-between — about the frozen funds and the restart of oil sales. No direct contact with the US. Trump’s two lead negotiators, Witkoff and Kushner, arrived, met their Qatari and Pakistani counterparts, and waited. Trump called the talks “perhaps important, perhaps not.” Israeli officials warned the war could be back within two days if the deal breaks.
Both sides sent people. Iran discussed the money. Qatar and Pakistan carried messages between rooms. That is how this deal works: not direct, not clean, but still going.
Worth noting: Qatar’s foreign ministry confirmed that none of the $6 billion in frozen funds has been transferred to Iran yet. Tehran says things are moving in the right direction and expects talks with Qatar on Wednesday. The gap between money promised and money received is where the real test lies.
The UAE quietly reopens with Iran
Away from the diplomacy, something more tangible happened at Dubai airport.
At 1:39 pm on Tuesday, Sepehran Airlines operated the first direct flight between Tehran and Dubai in four months. A return flight followed the same evening.
The resumption came a week after Iran’s foreign minister called his UAE counterpart, the first known call since the war began in February. The UAE condemned Iran’s strikes on Bahrain and Kuwait on Sunday and reopened its skies to Iranian flights on Tuesday. Both things are true, and the UAE is doing both at once.
ADNOC: records and a pricing change
Abu Dhabi’s oil business had a significant Tuesday.
The UAE exported a record volume of crude in June — its first full month since leaving OPEC on 1 May, ending nearly 60 years of membership. With no quota to observe, it pumped and shipped as much as it could. Iraq, still inside OPEC, immediately pushed for a bigger quota, saying the UAE’s exit has squeezed member revenues.
Three sources also told Reuters that ADNOC plans to change how it prices three oil grades under long-term contracts, moving from its own Murban-traded price to the Dubai price. The Dubai price is used more widely across Asia. It is also a signal that Abu Dhabi is rethinking how it sells oil in a world without its OPEC quota.
Oil: worst quarter since 2020
The numbers from the past three months are stark.
Brent is on course for its biggest quarterly drop since 2020 — three months of falls in a row, with June down around 20%. Iranian oil is returning. The Strait is moving again. The fear that Hormuz might close for months has gone.
A Reuters poll of 31 analysts cut the 2026 Brent forecast to $84.50 from $90.44 last month. Bank of America went further: $72 for the rest of this year and $65 for 2027 if the peace holds. That would be cheaper than at any point since before the war.
On the Strait: around 24 cargo ships crossed in both directions on Monday, the first rise since the weekend attacks. A large Saudi oil tanker is off Ras Tanura. Three South Korean tankers sailed empty. A Greek tanker is waiting off Ras Al-Khaimah. Traffic is returning but still well below February levels.
There is a clock running on Hormuz fees. The deal says Iran will not charge ships to pass for 60 days. After that, the question is open. Iran’s deputy foreign minister said Tehran wants to manage Hormuz jointly with Oman — and will act alone if Oman is not interested. Oman has privately told European governments that some form of payment may be unavoidable. The US calls any fees unacceptable. When the 60 days run out, this becomes the next dispute.
Brent was up around 1% on Tuesday to $73.15. The UAE also cut petrol and diesel prices for July — the clearest sign yet of what cheaper oil means at the pump.
Lebanon: a deal in trouble
The Israel-Lebanon agreement is five days old and already fraying.
The full security section of the deal was leaked on Tuesday. The Times of Israel published it under the headline “Eventual Israeli redeployment from Lebanon” — that word is doing a lot of work. There is no deadline for Hezbollah to hand over weapons, nothing to force compliance, and no firm date for Israel to leave its military zone in the south.
Israel struck south Lebanon again on Tuesday, its second attack since Friday’s signing. The LA Times published a long piece arguing the deal was “built to fail” — too many open conditions, too little outside pressure to enforce them. President Aoun met his army chief to work out how Lebanese forces would deploy in the two areas where Israel is supposed to withdraw first — areas that Hezbollah has already declared void.
Israeli Foreign Minister Katz threatened to act against Iran unilaterally if the broader deal collapses. Israel’s cost of the war has reportedly reached $50 billion.
Dubai Aerospace: buying planes, selling maintenance
Dubai Aerospace Enterprise told Al Bayan it is targeting up to $3 billion in aircraft purchases this year, on top of more than 30 deliveries from its Boeing, Airbus and ATR order book. Its fleet stands at around 500 aircraft worth roughly $20 billion.
DAE has also hired Morgan Stanley to find a buyer for an 80% stake in Joramco, a Jordan-based aircraft maintenance firm it bought in 2016. Sell the maintenance arm, keep buying planes.
Also, dnata, the Emirates Group’s ground-handling business, signed a seven-year contract at Amsterdam’s Schiphol airport.
Compliance day
Private-sector companies with 50 or more employees had until today to meet their Emiratisation targets for the first half of 2026 — seven per cent of skilled jobs filled by UAE nationals. Those who miss the mark face fines from today. The year-end target is ten per cent.
The UAE’s e-invoicing system is also in a pilot phase. Companies with revenue exceeding AED 50 million must select an approved provider via the EmaraTax portal by 30 October, ahead of the January 2027 deadline.
Watch today
Doha: Do the frozen-funds talks produce anything? Does Tehran find a way to call it progress? Any word on when the $6 billion actually moves?
Lebanon: Whether Israel strikes again. Whether Lebanon’s cabinet takes a position on disarmament. Whether Hezbollah does anything beyond talk.
Markets: Abu Dhabi and Dubai open the new quarter. ADNOC’s pricing change is the morning’s most important oil story. Bank of America’s $72 forecast and the new July fuel prices will set the tone.
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