Trump Weighs a "Massive Attack" on Iran
Brent breaks $100 as the Houthis strike Saudi tankers, Shalamcheh buries its dead, and the Saudi nuclear deal hits a new snag
Trump is now considering what he calls a “massive attack” on Iran, “bigger than ever before.” He’s holding Tehran responsible for the Houthis too. And Brent broke $100 for the first time in almost two months.
Good morning. Steve Moore here, trying to keep pace with a region that won’t slow down. The Houthis hit two Saudi tankers with missiles and drones — their first attack in months, ending a truce with Washington that had held since last year. Trump told Axios he’s “close to making a decision” on a strike bigger than anything so far. A Shalamcheh border strike killed two people. And Iran’s foreign minister just gave his sharpest rejection yet of the American approach.
TRUMP WEIGHS A “MASSIVE ATTACK”
President Trump told Axios he’s considering an attack on Iran that would be “bigger than ever before,” and said he’s “close to making a decision” on it. He also posted on Truth Social that the US will hold Iran responsible for further Houthi strikes on Red Sea shipping: “major military punishment will be inflicted upon Iran and, of course, the Houthis themselves.” It ties the Hormuz and Red Sea fronts together as a single American target for the first time.
A day earlier, Trump had already threatened to destroy “one bridge or power plant” every time Iran fires on a ship in Hormuz. Iran has warned it will hit regional infrastructure, including energy facilities, if he follows through.
THE HOUTHIS BREAK A YEAR OF QUIET
Yemen’s Houthis struck two Saudi tankers, the Encelia and Layla, with missiles and drones on Thursday — their first attack in several months. Saudi Arabia confirmed the Encelia, a refined-products tanker, was hit; the British navy separately confirmed a vessel struck near Al Shuqaiq. It’s unclear whether either ship sustained lasting damage. The strikes still threaten to close a second maritime chokepoint alongside Hormuz.
The Houthis had ended their previous Red Sea campaign in May 2025 under a truce with the US, after both had been bombed by American, British and Israeli forces. That truce is now over. The group has emailed international shipowners warning them to avoid Saudi ports altogether, adding risk for non-Saudi vessels too.
BRENT BREAKS $100
Brent crude climbed above $100 a barrel Thursday for the first time in almost two months. The Red Sea has become Saudi Arabia’s main workaround for crude exports since Hormuz effectively closed, with the port of Yanbu now the kingdom’s primary outlet. Threatening both chokepoints at once removes the workaround itself.
A DEADLY STRIKE AT SHALAMCHEH
US strikes hit Iranian military sites for a 12th consecutive night, including missile and air-defence facilities. Iranian state television reported one strike hit the passenger terminal at the Shalamcheh border crossing with Iraq, killing two people — the clearest civilian toll reported from either side this week. Iran fired back on US bases in Kuwait and Jordan.
The US resumed a full naval blockade of Iran roughly two weeks ago, when this round of fighting began, and ended its waiver on Iranian oil sanctions. Between that and the Houthi re-escalation, the interim peace deal signed in June — meant to lead toward a permanent settlement within two months — is essentially finished.
NEITHER SIDE WANTS TO TALK
“They’re not ready to make a deal because every time they make a deal, they want to change it and everything,” Trump said at a rally in Georgia Wednesday. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, was equally blunt on state television: “There is no real problem with conveying messages — the issue lies in the US approach, which is illogical, excessively demanding and hegemonic.” Neither man is describing the same conflict as ready for negotiation.
The US House voted again on Thursday to end the war, a rebuke of Trump’s approach, even as it separately approved a $95 billion budget package — roughly $73 billion of it for the Pentagon and Iran war costs, the rest for farm aid and election measures — to keep the campaign funded. US gasoline prices are back above $4 a gallon, with November’s midterms squarely in view.
SAUDI NUCLEAR DEAL HITS A NEW CONDITION
Barely a day after his administration signed a civil nuclear-sharing deal with Saudi Arabia, Trump said Thursday it is “totally subject to” Riyadh joining the Abraham Accords and normalising ties with Israel. He added there would be “no enrichment” of nuclear material under the pact. Saudi Arabia has said it won’t normalise with Israel without Palestinian statehood, a condition Israel has ruled out — so the deal Washington finalised Wednesday may now be stuck before it starts.
Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed Trump has told the Saudis directly: “If they don’t join the Abraham Accords, the deal is off.” Israel’s Netanyahu called Saudi accession a potential “historic leap forward,” while Energy Minister Eli Cohen said his real worry is future enrichment oversight, not the deal itself. The Energy Department’s original statement on the pact made no mention of Israel at all.
AL ZEYOUDI: UAE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE ON $1.4 TRILLION US PLEDGE
The UAE is running ahead of schedule on its $1.4 trillion, ten-year US investment pledge, Minister of Foreign Trade Thani Al Zeyoudi said this week, crediting Washington’s recent easing of AI chip export curbs. Abu Dhabi will “very soon” start importing high-end Nvidia and AMD chips for Stargate, the AI data-centre cluster meant to host OpenAI. Al Zeyoudi dismissed US security hawks worried about China access: “You cannot please everyone... but we’re fulfilling all the requirements.”
He was far less warm about Brussels, accusing the EU of stalling a UAE trade pact by insisting on non-trade issues like ESG and labour standards. “It’s not moving at the same pace as with others,” he said. “Capital will not wait.” A Canada CEPA could close within 90 days, with Rwanda “close” and talks progressing with Egypt, Ghana, Mozambique, Zambia and others.
DP WORLD’S HORMUZ WORKAROUND GETS SPECIFIC
DP World’s new deepwater terminals at Fujairah and Dibba — the Al Rugaylat container and multi-purpose terminal, and the Dibba general cargo terminal — will carry a combined 2.5 million 20-foot containers, 190,000 autos and up to 5.3 million tons of general cargo a year. Both sit outside the Strait of Hormuz, linking the world’s largest container port outside Asia to global trade without vessels needing to transit the strait at all.
An inland logistics network will connect the new terminals back to Jebel Ali and the adjacent Jafza industrial zone, with construction phased over as long as 30 months. They’re the clearest capacity figures yet behind Abu Dhabi’s “zero Hormuz” ambition.
LNG BUYERS WANT BETTER TERMS
Asian and European LNG buyers plan to press Qatar and the UAE for lower prices and stronger supply guarantees, as insurance costs on Hormuz-routed deliveries climb, buyers and traders told Reuters. This marks the first commercial pushback against ADNOC’s LNG expansion since Tuesday’s Umm Shaif Gas Cap decision, and Qatar carries the same exposure as the world’s largest LNG exporter.
UAE CONDEMNS, THEN ACTS
The UAE’s Foreign Ministry condemned Iran’s renewed attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan Thursday as “a flagrant violation of the sovereignty of the brotherly nations.” President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed separately directed the UAE Aid Agency to launch urgent flood relief for Ghana, where flooding has killed 45 people and affected more than 131,000 across 21,367 families. He also sent Egyptian President Sisi a message marking the anniversary of the 23 July Revolution, a small gesture landing in the same week the Egypt-brokered ceasefire framework collapsed.
DUBAI’S TOURISM PLAY GOES GLOBAL
“A Dubai Invite,” the resident-ambassador scheme launched Wednesday, went viral internationally on Thursday. Forbes led with: “Dubai had a record number of tourists last year. Now they’re paying people to visit.” Malay Mail, Tengrinews Kazakhstan and Leggo Italy all picked it up. The coverage is calling the scheme what it is: a demand-response measure for a tourism sector hit by the war, not a loyalty perk.
AROUND THE UAE
The Federal Youth Authority launched “Ghatareef,” a National Readiness Programme for Emirati secondary school graduates, with a September pilot and registration closing 30 July. Dubai Land Department signed a quality-of-life partnership with the UAE Football Association. Sharjah’s Sheraa confirmed its Dh5 million Resilience Fund has now supported more than 60 local startups through the war window. Novo Nordisk named Venkat Kalyan as General Manager for its Gulf operations this week.
WATCH TODAY
Trump’s decision. Whether the “massive attack” he described to Axios materialises, and what shape it takes if it does.
The two-chokepoint problem. Whether the Houthis strike further vessels, whether Brent holds above $100, and whether OPEC+ signals any emergency response.
Washington’s split. Whether the House’s vote to end the war gains any real traction against the $95 billion budget package already moving through Congress.
That’s where it stands this morning. It’s a heavy one. Tell me if something doesn’t add up, and pass it on if it’s useful.
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Back at 7:30 tomorrow, whatever the night throws at us.
— Steve
Steve Moore
Emirates Wire · launching 9 September 2026, National Liberal Club, London
emirateswire.co.uk · steve@emirateswire.co.uk
A note on how this is made: Substack recently launched an AI-detection feature and published its policy on it, “Against Claudefishing” by CEO Chris Best. In that spirit, here’s our disclosure: Emirates Wire is reported, written and edited by Steve Moore. AI tools help with research aggregation and early drafting, but every fact is personally verified, and every sentence is personally approved before it goes out. Questions are welcome any time at steve@emirateswire.co.uk.