Morning. Steve Moore here. Twelve crew members were injured when a projectile struck a tanker crossing the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, India’s foreign ministry said. The injured were taken to Khasab in Oman, as commercial ships continued to face attacks along the routes carrying Gulf exports.
Saudi Arabia has also confirmed injuries and damage from attacks on airports in Jazan and Najran. In Yemen, even government sources are giving different accounts of how far their forces have advanced towards Mokha and the Bab al-Mandab strait.
At home, new figures show how sharply Dubai’s residential sales have slowed compared with last year. In technology, Bloomberg reports that UAE funds, including Abu Dhabi’s MGX, have discussed investing as much as $10 billion collectively in OpenAI’s next financing round.
The cost to crews
The Panama-flagged MT On Peace had 19 crew members aboard, including 17 Indians, when it was struck off Oman’s coast. India’s foreign ministry said 11 of the 12 injured were Indian and thanked Omani authorities for helping evacuate them.
The ministry condemned the attack and called for an end to the targeting of commercial shipping and seafarers. Its statement did not identify who fired the projectile.
CNBC, citing the Joint Maritime Information Center, reports that nearly 20 commercial ships, mostly tankers, have come under attack over the past month in Hormuz, the Gulf or waters off Oman. The same report describes a US-protected route along Oman’s coast and a shuttle system in which tankers carry crude through Hormuz, then transfer it to other ships in the Gulf of Oman for onward journeys to Asia. The transfers reduce some vessels’ exposure but require more ships, while crews and operators continue to face attacks and higher freight and insurance costs.
Oil movements have recovered from earlier disruption, although daily volumes fluctuate, according to the shipping analysts cited by CNBC. Brent was quoted at $100.35 a barrel, up $0.03, at 6.18 pm London on Tuesday.
Saudi airport attacks widen the conflict
Saudi Arabia’s General Authority of Civil Aviation said attacks on King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz International Airport in Jazan and Najran International Airport on Monday evening caused property damage and left three people with minor injuries. It said emergency teams responded and authorities were assessing the damage and checking the safety of the facilities.
The Houthis separately claimed to have struck King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, an Aramco refinery and other targets. AFP reported loud explosions in the capital, but its account did not establish damage at the airport.
Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey agreed at an emergency meeting in Riyadh on Monday to activate their collective-defence commitments and arrange the rapid deployment of agreed forces and military capabilities to the kingdom. The announcement did not establish that those deployments had already taken place or give troop numbers.
Competing accounts at Bab al-Mandeb
Yemen’s Saudi-backed military says it has secured Bab al-Mandeb and captured Mokha, the port city on the Red Sea. The Houthis deny losing control, while accounts from within the government side also fail to confirm the military’s announcement.
Four government sources told Reuters that forces had reached Mokha’s outskirts late on Monday and that Houthi fighters were retreating, according to the BBC. Government military sources speaking to AFP would not confirm that the city had been captured; they described gains around Dhubab and the cutting of a supply route.
The military’s claim to have “secured” the strait therefore remains disputed. The Houthis also continue to threaten Saudi shipping, so the announcements cannot be treated as an assurance of safe passage.
A Saudi–UAE thaw?
Writing for the Arab Gulf States Institute on 2 October, Kristian Coates Ulrichsen argues that renewed Houthi attacks and tensions with Iran have given Riyadh and Abu Dhabi stronger reasons to coordinate. He sees Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed’s visit to Riyadh on 29 September as a signal of that effort after the two countries’ dispute over Yemen.
Ulrichsen’s argument centres on the different Yemeni forces Saudi Arabia and the UAE have supported. He suggests closer coordination could help the groups fighting the Houthis, while judging a direct UAE return to the conflict unlikely.
WAM’s account of Sheikh Mansour’s meeting with Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman describes discussions on bilateral ties. It announces no UAE military deployment.
UAE funds discuss an OpenAI investment
Bloomberg reports that OpenAI is in talks with several UAE investment funds, including MGX, to help finance a round of at least $30 billion. The UAE investors have discussed forming a syndicate and putting in as much as $10 billion between them, according to people familiar with the discussions.
The proposed valuation is about $1.4 trillion before the new money, Bloomberg says. BlackRock is also discussing participation, but the fundraising is ongoing, and the terms could change. OpenAI and BlackRock declined to comment, while MGX did not respond to Bloomberg’s request outside normal business hours.
Dubai’s residential sales slow
Cavendish Maxwell says Dubai recorded more than Dh72.6 billion in residential sales across about 34,000 transactions in the third quarter. Total sales value fell 47%, and transactions fell 38% compared with the same quarter last year.
Those measures describe the value and number of homes sold. They do not establish a 47% fall in an individual home’s price.
The consultancy’s residential valuation director, Ronan Arthur, says buyers became more cautious after the conflict began. He also points to the gap between agreeing a purchase and registering it: third-quarter figures include both recent and earlier buying decisions.
Springfield Properties’ separate analysis puts residential sales at Dh72.58 billion, close to Cavendish Maxwell’s total. Its larger headline figure of Dh90.62 billion includes commercial property as well as homes.
A UAE-backed freight railway for Jordan
King Abdullah II and Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, attended the groundbreaking in Aqaba on Monday for the Aqaba–Al-Shidiyeh–Maan railway. WAM puts the joint investment at about $2.5 billion for a 403-kilometre network connecting Aqaba with mining and production sites and the Maan Logistics Zone.
The planned network will carry bulk cargo and containers, with an expected annual capacity to transport about 16 million tonnes of phosphate and potash. Its developer, the Jordan-UAE Railway Company, brings together Abu Dhabi’s L’IMAD Holding and Jordanian mining and investment institutions.
ADNOC extends its Thai gas partnership
ADNOC Trading has signed an agreement to supply about two million tonnes of liquefied natural gas, or LNG, to Thailand’s Gulf Group over several years, starting in 2027. It extends a supply relationship established in 2025, according to Oil & Gas Journal.
What to watch today
Shipping: Further information on the injured crew of MT On Peace, any evidence identifying the attacker and new maritime warnings.
Saudi Arabia: Updates on the affected airports and any official account of damage from the claimed Riyadh strikes.
Yemen: Evidence of who controls Mokha, Dhubab and the approaches to Bab al-Mandeb.
Defence cooperation: Whether the deployment commitments announced in Riyadh are followed by confirmed force movements.
OpenAI: Any confirmation of the proposed UAE investment, participating funds and final financing terms.
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Steve
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Steve, another remarkably balanced issue. The operational distinction you draw regarding Dubai's residential real estate metrics is a masterclass in financial reporting. Highlighting the unverified nature of the Bab al-Mandeb advances also keeps the focus firmly on ground realities rather than wartime rhetoric.