Two US Soldiers Dead in Jordan, Iran Names Dubai and Abu Dhabi as Targets
An eighth night of strikes, a Khamenei succession revealed, and the UAE posts a record trade half in the middle of it all.
Two American service members are dead in Jordan.
Steve Moore here. Trump has ordered an eighth night of strikes in response, and Iran has named Dubai and Abu Dhabi airports as potential targets. The UAE, meanwhile, posted a record half-year trade number, and Mubadala opened a $25 billion credit book to outside money.
THE RED LINE
Iranian ballistic missiles struck US and coalition positions at Al-Azraq base in Jordan on Friday, killing two US service members, wounding four more and leaving one soldier missing. That attack brought the total US death toll to 16 since the US-Israeli war on Iran began on 28 February. Trump had said US casualties would trigger the “next phase” of retaliation. CENTCOM described the resulting American strikes as seeking to reduce Iran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping and to “swiftly punish” the IRGC forces behind the Jordan attack; a further wave began at 6 pm ET Sunday, the eighth consecutive night of US strikes, hitting Qeshm Island and southern Iranian cities including Shadegan, Sirik and Hajiabad.
The Khamenei statement carried by wire services was not from Iran’s long-standing Supreme Leader. It came from Mojtaba Khamenei, who has effectively taken over Iran’s public leadership after US strikes killed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and severely wounded him in the first days of the war; the elder Khamenei has not been seen in public since. Mojtaba Khamenei said US violations of the memorandum “have once again proven to everyone the truth of how worthless and invalid the signature of the US president is,” and warned of “unforgettable lessons” for Washington. Tehran has formally suspended the Islamabad memorandum of understanding brokered by Pakistan last month. Iranian officials say 50 people have been killed and more than 500 injured inside Iran since 27 June, with 12 killed in the last 24 hours alone.
The Gulf absorbed another night of strikes, and one new threat stands out.
THE THREAT AGAINST DUBAI AND ABU DHABI
Iran struck US allies across the Gulf again this weekend, marking one of the war’s most severe sustained waves, particularly directed at Kuwait. A power and desalination plant in Al Shuaiba was hit for the third time in as many days, sparking a fire and knocking out a large number of generation units; Kuwait Petroleum Corporation separately confirmed an oil site sustained “significant material losses” over the weekend, forcing an evacuation and causing a number of injuries. Drones reportedly targeted US forces at Camp Buehring and Ali Al Salem Air Base, though neither hit was confirmed. Bahrain sounded warning sirens Sunday before intercepting a wave of Iranian aerial attacks. Iran also struck US radar and aircraft in Qatar — one of the principal mediators between Washington and Tehran — according to Tasnim. GCC Secretary-General Jasem Al-Budaiwi described the attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan as “war crimes.”
Confusion spread through Jordan after the US embassy in Amman said Aqaba’s airport and sea port had been evacuated over a “specific and credible threat”; Jordanian authorities initially denied this before the Army confirmed it had intercepted three Iranian missiles targeting the country. Iranian sources have identified Dubai and Abu Dhabi airports as potential targets of retaliation if US strikes continue, the most direct threat yet against the UAE. The UAE’s own Saturday statement said targeting civilian infrastructure — “schools, hospitals, desalination plants, energy facilities and transportation hubs” — “cannot, under any circumstances, be accepted or justified.” Saudi Arabia separately issued and then stood down warnings for Al-Kharj and the Red Sea port of Yanbu, a key outlet for Saudi crude, while the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.
The IRGC Navy said Sunday it had halted four unidentified vessels attempting to use an “unsafe route” after they disregarded warnings — two “met with accidents and were stopped in their tracks,” while the other two “abandoned the route and turned back.” The navy vowed, “not a single drop of oil, gas, or chemical fertiliser will pass through the Strait of Hormuz without coordination and permission.” Straits. Live puts the strait on Day 139 of effective closure, with the Pressure Index still at 91 — extreme. Axios reported the Trump administration has notified Israel it is sending additional refuelling aircraft, a possible sign of widening US-Israeli coordination, while Israeli security cabinet minister Itamar Ben Gvir declined to rule out Israel rejoining the war. Even with civilian infrastructure now targeted, the intensity has not yet reached the war’s height in March and early April, when the US and Israel bombarded Iranian cities on a mass scale, and Tehran fired thousands of drones and missiles at Gulf Arab states and Israel in return.
Brent held the line that the war had drawn under it.
BRENT AT $88
Brent crude closed Friday at $88.10 a barrel and WTI at $82.49, both benchmarks up roughly 16% on the week, with the last confirmed print unchanged into Sunday. Aletihad’s analyst outlook said prices are set to “remain elevated in the near term.” Reuters reported that Gulf bourses retreated as US-Iran hostilities intensified.
IMF economists Jean-Marc Natal and Azim Sadikov noted that despite roughly 20 million bpd of chokepoint disruption, prices have held in a moderate $90-100 band only because global oil buffers are “running dangerously low.”
The other speed.
THE RECORD HALF, MID-WAR
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum announced that UAE non-oil foreign trade reached Dh1.937 trillion in H1 2026 — up 13.1% year-on-year and 78.8% higher than the same period in 2022. Non-oil exports jumped 23.4% to a record Dh452.8 billion. Gold led the commodity mix at Dh706.2 billion, up 48.8%. China remained the top trading partner at Dh180.7 billion, followed by Switzerland at Dh138.4 billion and India at Dh107.5 billion.
Sheikh Mohammed framed the figures, which were released on the same weekend Iran named the country’s two busiest airports as potential targets, as a sign of “the world’s growing confidence” in the UAE.
Separately, Mubadala Investment Company is transferring management of its $25 billion private-credit portfolio to its alternative-asset arm, Mubadala Capital, and opening the platform to outside investors — pension funds, insurers, wealthy individuals — for the first time, alongside a $4.65 billion capital top-up. Mubadala Group CEO Khaldoon Al Mubarak becomes Chairman of Mubadala Capital as part of the restructuring. A sovereign fund raising outside capital into a private-credit vehicle in the middle of a war is a notable signal in itself.
An infrastructure decision that will outlast the war.
THE FUJAIRAH BYPASS
DP World is drawing up plans to build a new port and container terminal in Fujairah on the UAE’s east coast, allowing cargo to reach the country via the Gulf of Oman and bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely, per the Financial Times. The company is in early discussions with government officials on investment terms and approvals. Separately, filings show the UAE told OPEC that its crude output rose to 3.8 million barrels a day in June — evidence that the country continues to reroute exports away from the Strait of Hormuz following its exit from OPEC quotas.
Combined with Mubadala’s pivot and record non-oil trade figures, Abu Dhabi and Dubai appear to be repositioning amid this war.
The legal fallout from last week’s false alarm continues.
THE REUTERS PROBE CONTINUES
The UAE Attorney-General, Dr Hamad Saif Al Shamsi, confirmed that the Public Prosecution’s criminal investigation into Reuters’ 16 July report claiming explosions were heard in central Dubai will continue despite the news agency’s Friday retraction and apology. The investigation has included questioning of the reporter and a formal summons to senior editorial leadership who approved and published the story. The Attorney-General said the retraction “does not preclude the continuation of the investigation to determine legal responsibility and take the actions required by law.”
The practical fallout from the broader conflict is now visible in flight schedules: Emirates cancelled eight Dubai-Kuwait flights on Sunday, Etihad cancelled its Abu Dhabi-Kuwait services for 19 and 20 July, and Air Arabia trimmed multiple Sharjah and Abu Dhabi-Kuwait routes. Flydubai’s Dubai-Abha service was also cancelled on Sunday. Dubai International remained fully operational; Kuwait International briefly suspended operations on Saturday amid missile and drone threats.
WATCH TODAY
Whether Iran acts on the airport threat. This is the single most consequential line in this brief. Any credible move against Dubai or Abu Dhabi airspace would be a direct escalation against the UAE itself.
Trump’s retaliation ceiling. Whether Sunday’s 6 pm ET strike wave crosses new thresholds — Iranian civilian infrastructure, the power grid, or IRGC leadership — following the deaths of two US service members.
The ADX opens. First Gulf trading session after Reuters flagged a broader retreat in Gulf bourses. Watch whether the market treats the airport threat as priced in.
Fujairah’s formal status. Whether DP World or the Ministry officially confirms the port plan, moving it from reported to real.
The mediation vacuum. Whether Qatar or Oman steps into the space left by the suspended Islamabad MoU, and whether the GCC’s “war crimes” language produces any coordinated response beyond statements.
Tomorrow will tell us which story wins out: the war reaching UAE airspace, or the record trade numbers and the Fujairah plan.
Still watching. Back tomorrow. — Steve
Emirates Wire launches on 9 September 2026 at the National Liberal Club, London.
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steve@emirateswire.co.uk