New here? DXB’s worst H1 in years, rising Hormuz oil flows, and a $10bn ADNOC deal in the works. Subscribe free for the version that connects the dots.
What you need to know
Dubai International Airport handled roughly 31.5 million passengers in H1 2026, down 31.3% year-on-year, a direct hit from the Iran war on Middle East air corridors.
Hormuz oil flows have climbed to an estimated 6-8 million barrels a day, roughly half pre-war levels, with the UAE the first major regional producer to ramp up exports.
Brent is on course for its biggest weekly drop since late June, trading around $88, as rising Gulf loadings quietly undercut the diplomatic optimism driving headlines.
ADNOC is in active talks to acquire Mubadala Energy assets in a deal that’s stalled around a $10bn valuation.
Today is Prophet’s Birthday, a UAE public holiday, with free Dubai parking, adjusted Metro hours and the E100 bus route to Abu Dhabi suspended through 30 August.
Morning. Steve Moore here, and happy Prophet’s Birthday to those observing today.
Dubai Airport Traffic Collapses 31% as Iran War Grounds Gulf Demand
Dubai International Airport handled 13 million passengers in the second quarter, bringing its H1 total to roughly 31.5 million, down from 45.9 million a year earlier, a 31.3% year-on-year fall that industry watchers attribute squarely to the Iran-Israel-US war disrupting Middle East air corridors, driving up insurance costs, and suppressing inbound demand. For the world’s busiest international hub, a shortfall of this scale reverberates well beyond the airport gates, touching Emirates’ capacity planning, DET tourism receipts, hotel occupancy and the broader Dubai consumer economy that leans heavily on transit spending.
Hormuz Oil Flows Quietly Climb Back Toward Half of Pre-War Levels
Correction to a figure we’ve cited this week: Hormuz throughput isn’t running at a tenth of pre-war levels any longer. Bloomberg reporting Thursday puts flows at an estimated 6-8 million barrels a day, according to traders monitoring cargo activity, roughly half the pre-war norm, though Tankertrackers.com’s more conservative AIS-based method puts the figure at 3.7 million barrels a day over the past week. Either way, the direction is unmistakably up, and the UAE was “the first major producer in the region to really ramp up its exports,” setting the template other Gulf producers are now following.
The mechanics are worth understanding. Producers are running shuttle tankers that haul cargoes to points just outside the Gulf, near Oman’s Sohar or the UAE’s Fujairah, where larger vessels still unwilling to enter the strait collect them for onward shipment, a workaround every major regional supplier except Iran is now using. Iraq’s Basra terminal loaded seven tankers on Monday, carrying roughly 13 million barrels of capacity against a prewar norm of six; Qatar and Kuwait have clawed back to around 70% of pre-conflict export levels; and satellite imagery showed Saudi Arabia’s Persian Gulf terminals at their busiest in weeks on Tuesday. Trump said Thursday that 24 boats crossed Hormuz the previous night. Supertanker earnings are at record highs, giving shipowners real financial incentive to make the crossing despite the risk. The upshot: Brent is trading around $88, on course for its biggest weekly drop since late June, as this quiet supply recovery undercuts the diplomatic optimism that’s otherwise dominated this week’s headlines.
ADNOC in $10bn Talks to Buy Mubadala’s Energy Assets
ADNOC is in active negotiations to acquire Mubadala Energy assets, with talks that began in late 2024 now stalling around a roughly $10 billion valuation, according to a report Thursday. The deal would consolidate Abu Dhabi’s upstream footprint under ADNOC while freeing Mubadala, which manages some $330 billion, to lean further into healthcare, financial services and technology. It’s a live signal of how the emirate’s sovereign portfolio is being redrawn even as oil markets wobble underneath it.
Trump Sends Fresh Carrier to the Gulf, Vows Campaign “For As Long As Necessary”
President Trump is dispatching the USS Theodore Roosevelt on a seven-month-plus deployment to relieve the USS George Washington in the Gulf, telling reporters the US will continue its Iran campaign “for as long as necessary” and offering no timetable for peace talks. The carrier swap sits awkwardly beside the Qatar-Iran-Oman diplomatic track running in parallel, and against this week’s rising Hormuz flows, it underscores a split emerging between Washington’s military posture and the region’s quiet supply recovery, two tracks now moving in opposite directions.
ADQ Signs Five-Year Wheat Pact With Egypt as Food Security Push Continues
ADQ has signed a five-year wheat supply agreement with Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities, extending an arrangement first struck in 2023 and pushing Abu Dhabi’s food-security strategy deeper into North Africa. The pact lands as regional grain flows remain jittery on Red Sea and Black Sea disruption, underscoring how the UAE’s sovereign wealth machinery is quietly locking in supply chains well beyond energy.
Your Dubai Three-Day-Weekend Guide
Public parking, excluding multi-storey facilities, is free across Dubai today for Prophet’s Birthday, with paid parking resuming Saturday. Dubai Metro and Tram are running extended holiday hours, while the E100 bus route between Al Ghubaiba and Abu Dhabi is suspended from 27 to 30 August, with the E101 from Ibn Battuta serving as the alternative. Most RTA Customer Happiness Centres are closed today, aside from Umm Ramool and the 24/7 smart centres in Deira, Al Barsha, Al Twar, Al Kifaf and headquarters.
Around the Emirates
The Emirati Women’s Forum 2026 opened Thursday at Madinat Jumeirah under the patronage of Sheikha Fatima bint Mubarak, themed “We Emerge Stronger and Better” to coincide with Emirati Women’s Day. Separately, some UAE public school pupils will no longer be assigned homework under a new exams and assessment framework. And UAE Team Emirates-XRG’s Tadej Pogačar won Vuelta a España Stage 4 in the Andorran mountains, extending his overall lead.
Watch Today
Whether Hormuz loadings sustain last week’s pace or fade, and whether Brent tests below $85 if flows keep climbing.
Any follow-up disclosure from ADNOC, Mubadala or Abu Dhabi Media Office on the reported $10bn talks.
Holiday travel volumes at DXB and Sharjah airport over the long weekend.
— Steve
Steve Moore Emirates Wire · launching 9 September 2026, National Liberal Club, London emirateswire.co.uk · steve@emirateswire.co.uk
A note on how this is made: Emirates Wire is reported, written and edited by Steve Moore. AI tools help with research aggregation and early drafting, but every fact is personally verified, and every sentence is personally approved before it goes out. Questions welcome any time at steve@emirateswire.co.uk.
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