Here is the full recording of our first Emirates Wire event, held at the National Liberal Club on 9 September 2026.
It was a lovely evening, and I want to start with thanks. The National Liberal Club gave us a splendid setting, with high ceilings, portraits and the faint sense that a good argument has been had in that room before. We filled it. Every seat was taken, people stayed for the whole discussion and then stayed on for drinks afterwards, and a generous audience joined us on the livestream. For a first outing, we could not have asked for more. Thank you to everyone who gave up their evening to debate these questions with us, and to Roy and George, who made the introduction that started it all.
David Waddell chaired with a firm hand and a light touch. Michael Stephens spoke on security, James Swanston on the economy, and Sir Oliver Dowden on the wider picture. Michael stepped in at very short notice when Burcu couldn't make it from Istanbul, and the evening owes him a great deal.
The question we put to the panel was straightforward. What does the current Gulf conflict actually change about the United Arab Emirates? The answers were better than most coverage has managed.
The security argument reframed the evening. The UAE spent the years after 2019 building a foreign policy around prosperity, careful hedging and a place at the centre of trade between Asia and Europe. COVID and 7 October broke that plan, and survival has moved back to the front. The harder point came later. The Emirati military was built with American help to deter Iran in a short, sharp exchange, not in months of escalation and de-escalation. Interceptor stocks are low and cannot be replaced quickly. That is why Abu Dhabi keeps a channel open to Tehran whatever Washington would prefer, and why the divergence with Saudi Arabia now runs deeper than most observers assume.
The economics cut against the panic. First-quarter output fell about 4.5 per cent quarter on quarter, and oil production dropped to roughly 1.8m barrels a day in March, against 3.2m before. Exports were back near 3m by June and July. The Habshan-to-Fujairah pipeline carried the oil while the Strait of Hormuz was shut, and a second parallel line doubles that capacity. Behind it all sit sovereign wealth funds of around $2.4tn and reserves that absorbed a record $26bn drawdown in March and still left an enormous cushion.
The questions from the floor were as good as the panel, ranging across the Saudi defence pact, how long the conflict lasts, and the animosity between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. Sir Oliver closed on the assumption that had failed. Not a flare-up followed by a declared victory, but a permanent low-level conflict that neither side has much incentive to end, with the Emiratis better placed than most to live with it.
Do watch it in full. We intend to make this a regular gathering, and we would be delighted to see you at the next one.
Steve Moore
Emirates Wire
Emirates Wire is a free briefing on the United Arab Emirates and the wider Gulf, written for people who need the detail rather than the headlines. Subscribe to get each edition in your inbox, plus an invitation to the next event before seats run out.
